基于贝叶斯推理的突发水污染事件水质预测模型参数估计

doi:10.12005/orms.2021.0256

运筹与管理 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 127-132.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2021.0256

基于贝叶斯推理的突发水污染事件水质预测模型参数估计

杨海东, 刘碧玉

福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州 350116

收稿日期:2016-11-17 出版日期:2021-08-25
作者简介:杨海东(1981-),男,博士,副教授,研究方向为复杂系统与方法、危机管理与风险管控;刘碧玉(1981-),女,博士,副教授,研究方向为逆向物流、低碳运作管理、闭环供应链管理。
基金资助:
国家社科基金一般项目(17BGL179)

Water Quality Prediction Model Parameters Estimation for Sudden Water Pollution Accidents Based on Bayesian Inference

YANG Hai-dong, LUI Bi-yu

School of Economics & Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, China

Received:2016-11-17 Online:2021-08-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 参数的精确性是准确构建突发水污染事件水质预测模型的前提与保障。论文首先根据有限差分法和贝叶斯推理构建水质预测模型参数估计模型,然后通过Metropolis-Hasting抽样方法得到较为合理的参数,最后以发生在某段明渠的突发水污染事件为例,讨论了恒定流与非恒定流两种情景下不同观测噪声对参数估计结果的影响,并与采用有限差分-单纯形法得到的结果进行对比。结果表明:有限差分-贝叶斯方法具有较强的适用性和良好的抗噪声能力,采用该方法能获得较高精度的参数值。该研究为突发污染事件预测模型的构建提供一条新途径。

关键词: 参数估计, 水质预测模型, 贝叶斯推理, 有限差分方法, 突发水污染事件

Abstract: The accuracy of parameters is the premise and guarantee for accurately constructing the water quality prediction model of sudden water pollution accidents. This paper first constructs the parameter estimation model by Finite Difference Method and Bayesian inference, then obtains reasonable model parameters thorough Metropolis-Hasting sampling method, and finally taking a sudden water pollution accident in a certain open channel as an example, the effects of different observation noises on the calibration results are discussed under the two scenarios of control flow and non-control flow by comparing with the results obtained by the finite difference-simplex method. The results show that the finite difference-Bayesian method has strong applicability and a good anti-noise, which gives a high precision parameter value. It provides a new way for constructing the predication model of sudden pollution accidents.

Key words: parameters estimation, water quality prediction model, Bayesian inference, finite difference method, sudden water pollution accidents

中图分类号:

X522

杨海东, 刘碧玉. 基于贝叶斯推理的突发水污染事件水质预测模型参数估计[J]. 运筹与管理, 2021, 30(8): 127-132.

YANG Hai-dong, LUI Bi-yu. Water Quality Prediction Model Parameters Estimation for Sudden Water Pollution Accidents Based on Bayesian Inference[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2021, 30(8): 127-132.

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基于贝叶斯推理的突发水污染事件水质预测模型参数估计

Water Quality Prediction Model Parameters Estimation for Sudden Water Pollution Accidents Based on Bayesian Inference

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