关键词: 项目组合决策, 设计结构矩阵(DSM), PageRank算法, K-shell算法

Abstract: If we only focus on the project attributes without considering the impact of the project relevance and the project-derived technology, experience/information diffusion on the project portfolio decisions, it would lead to decision bias, that is, it would underestimate the value of potentially technology-leading projects. To avoid this issue, this paper uses the complex network theory to consider the domination and diffusion relationship between projects as directed weighted network. The K-shell decomposition approach is used to build models in a portfolio network(the project impact model based on dominance relationship or the model of technology, experience/information diffusion among projects, respectively). Then, based on the PageRank, the project priority ranking decision model is established by considering the relationship between project dominance and diffusion. To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed model and algorithm, a numerical study is conducted and provides a reference for enterprises’ project portfolio decision.

Key words: Portfolio decision, Design structure matrix(DSM), PageRank algorithm, K-shell algorithm