关键词: 绿色信贷, 定价机制, 利率补贴, 风险补偿

Abstract: Green credit is increasingly recognized for its role in supporting low-carbon industry development and facilitating the achievement of carbon neutrality goals. For banks, green credit functions more as a policy-driven financing mechanism than a commercial opportunity. Banks primarily rely on fiscal subsidies, targeted reserve requirements and other policy benefits to achieve profitability while meeting regulatory requirements. To sustain the growth of green credit, enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal subsidies, improving the quality of green credit, and strengthening incentives for enterprise green production are critical. At the core of these efforts is the need to refine the interest rate pricing mechanism for green credit. Currently, green credit interest rate pricing typically follows two approaches: one based on retrospective evaluations of enterprise environmental performance for interest rate incentives, and the other focused on the sustainability of the green credit business, aiming to balance the risks and returns of green projects.
   This paper develops a financing model for manufacturers facing stochastic green demand, considering a traditional manufacturer transitioning to green production by upgrading conventional products to low-carbon emission products and selling them to environmentally-conscious consumers. The success of the green transformation depends on the level of green investment. To alleviate capital constraints in the production process, manufacturers seek green loans from banks. A three-stage process is assumed: in the first stage, manufacturers make early green investments to meet the green financing threshold, while banks disclose their green credit pricing mechanisms; in the second stage, manufacturers obtain green credit and set production levels to maximize profits; in the third stage, manufacturers sell products, generating revenue to repay loan principal and interest. If revenue is insufficient to cover loan payments, it is assumed that the manufacturer will go bankrupt, and the bank will recover all revenue. From the bank’s perspective, two basic pricing models are identified: the emission cap-fixed interest rate model and the risk control-floating interest rate model. First, by analyzing and summarizing the decision-making characteristics and differences between financing parties in these two pricing models, the paper proposes a new emission cap-floating rate pricing model. Then, through a numerical simulation, the effects of incentive policies such as interest rate subsidies and risk compensation on carbon emissions, bank interest rates and corporate profits in different pricing models are explored.
   The results show that in the two basic pricing models: (1)there are optimal values for enterprise output and green investment decisions, with optimal output positively correlated with initial green investment; (2)in the emission cap-fixed interest rate model, banks can constrain corporate carbon reduction by lowering the emission threshold and interest rate, while in the risk control-floating interest rate model, banks adjust the interest rate to balance project returns and principal risk; (3)in the new emission cap-floating rate pricing model, it can simultaneously control corporate carbon emissions and business risks; (4)under risk compensation policies, increasing compensation ratios can effectively manage green credit business risks, reduce carbon emissions, and increase corporate profits.

Key words: green credit, pricing mechanisms, interest rate subsidies, risk compensation