汇率的就业传导渠道及其效应测算——基于中国制造业面板数据的实证研究

doi:10.12005/orms.2015.0061

运筹与管理 ›› 2015, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 170-177.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2015.0061

汇率的就业传导渠道及其效应测算——基于中国制造业面板数据的实证研究

王相宁, 郭桂圆

中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽合肥 230026

收稿日期:2012-01-16 出版日期:2015-04-12
作者简介:王相宁(1957-),女,浙江人,副教授,博士,研究方向:国际金融;郭桂圆(1987-),女,安徽六安人,硕士,研究方向:国际金融。

The Transmission Channels of Exchange Rate Impact on Employment and Its Effect Estimates ——Based on the Empirical Study of China’s Manufacturing Panel Data

WANG Xiang-nin, GUO Gui-yuan

School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China

Received:2012-01-16 Online:2015-04-12

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 文章研究了汇率的就业传导渠道,及其行业异质性。本文基于传统的生产函数理论,通过建模和理论分析得出:汇率影响就业的传导渠道主要有出口需求、资源配置和效率的三渠道。并基于中国制造业30个行业的2003年至2009年的面板数据,运用残差替代法和面板平滑机制转换回归,测算出各传导渠道在汇率影响就业过程中所起到的作用,结果表明:在整个传导机制中,出口需求对就业的作用较强,效率渠道和资源配置作用相对较弱;人民币升值对就业的总体效应为负效应,且传导机制中各渠道均具不同程度不同特征的行业异质性。

关键词: 实际有效汇率, 传导渠道, 就业, 行业异质性, 面板回归

Abstract: The transmission channels of exchange rate impact on employment and their industry heterogeneity are studied in this paper. The paper establishes a theoretic model of transmission channels through which exchange rates impact on employment based on traditional production function and considers how exchange rates impact on employment through these three transmission channels: export, resource allocation and production efficiency. We calculate the effect of three channels in the process of exchange rate impacting on employment based on panel date of 30 industries in Chinese manufacturing from 2003 to 2009, by using Residual Substitute Regression and Panel Smooth Transition Regression. The results show that export channel play a significant role in the Transmission Mechanism, the effect of production efficiency channel and resource allocation channel are relatively weak, and the overall impact of appreciation of RMB on China’s employment is negative. Every transmission in the Transmission Mechanism exhibits a different degree and characteristic of industry heterogeneity.

Key words: real effective exchange rate(REER), transmission channel, employment, industry heterogeneity, panel regrission

中图分类号:

王相宁, 郭桂圆. 汇率的就业传导渠道及其效应测算——基于中国制造业面板数据的实证研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2015, 24(2): 170-177.

WANG Xiang-nin, GUO Gui-yuan. The Transmission Channels of Exchange Rate Impact on Employment and Its Effect Estimates ——Based on the Empirical Study of China’s Manufacturing Panel Data[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2015, 24(2): 170-177.

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汇率的就业传导渠道及其效应测算——基于中国制造业面板数据的实证研究

The Transmission Channels of Exchange Rate Impact on Employment and Its Effect Estimates ——Based on the Empirical Study of China’s Manufacturing Panel Data

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