城镇化对经济发展的影响及其渠道研究

doi:10.12005/orms.2016.0073

运筹与管理 ›› 2016, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (2): 268-275.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0073

城镇化对经济发展的影响及其渠道研究

朱越浦¹,黄新建²

1.南昌大学管理学院,江西南昌 330031;
2.中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,江西南昌 330047

收稿日期:2015-10-08 出版日期:2016-04-25
作者简介:朱越浦(1989-),男,江西南昌人,博士研究生,研究方向:区域经济与企业经济;黄新建(1953-),男,江西抚州人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:区域经济与产业经济。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71263037);国家社会科学基金资助项目(12&ZD104);江西省社会科学界联合会资助项目(14YJ36)

Analysis of the Impact and the Channel of Urbanization on Economic Development

ZHU Yue-pu¹, HUANG Xin-jian²

1.Nanchang University Management School, Nanchang 330031, China;
2.Center for Central China Economic-social Development, Nanchang 330047, China

Received:2015-10-08 Online:2016-04-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文通过将定性分析与关系图描述相结合,提出H1:城镇化对经济发展具有显著正向促进作用、H2:城镇化可通过消费渠道影响经济发展、H3:城镇化可通过投资渠道影响经济发展、H4:城镇化可通过出口渠道影响经济发展四项研究假设。进一步,根据地区实际经济发展水平,将我国划分为发达与欠发达两类地区。设定经济发展变量PGDP为被解释变量,城镇化变量UR、城镇化与投资交互项变量UR×PFI、城镇化与消费交互项变量UR×HC和城镇化与出口交互项变量UR×PE为被解释变量,采用2000~2012年我国31个省市区的面板数据。基于单位根检验、协整关系检验、F检验、Hausman检验,建立个体固定效应模型,验证假设H1~H4在全国及两类地区是否成立。结果表明:H1、H2、H3假设在全国及两类地区均成立;H4假设仅在欠发达地区成立。基于研究结论,本文提出了相应的启示。

关键词: 城镇化, 经济发展, 影响及其渠道

Abstract: Based on the combination of qualitative analysis and description of relation schema we present four hypothesis, which are H1: urbanization has obviously positive impact on economic development; H2: urbanization could influence economic development via consumption channel; H3: urbanization could influence economic development via investment channel; H4: urbanization could influence economic development via export channel. Furthermore, according to the actual economic development, China has been divided into two kinds of areas-developed area and developing area. We set economic development variable PGDP as explained variable, set urbanization variable UR, variable UR×PFI of interaction of urbanization and investment, variable UR×HC of interaction of urbanization and consumption, variable UR×PE of interaction of urbanization and export, as explaining variables as well, and apply panel data of 31 provincial districts from 2000 to 2012. After the unit root test, the cointegration test, the F test and the Hausman test, the paper builds individual fixed effects model, and verifies hypothesis H1~H4 in the whole nation and two areas. The result shows that hypothesis H1, H2, H3 is tenable in the whole nation and two areas; hypothesis H4 is only tenable in underdeveloped area. Based on the result, the paper gives a relevant enlightenment.

Key words: urbanization, economic development, impact and the channel

中图分类号:

F293
F832.5

朱越浦,黄新建. 城镇化对经济发展的影响及其渠道研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2016, 25(2): 268-275.

ZHU Yue-pu, HUANG Xin-jian. Analysis of the Impact and the Channel of Urbanization on Economic Development[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2016, 25(2): 268-275.

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城镇化对经济发展的影响及其渠道研究

Analysis of the Impact and the Channel of Urbanization on Economic Development

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