一类震灾人员受损估计方法及应用

doi:10.12005/orms.2019.0266

运筹与管理 ›› 2019, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11): 191-199.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0266

• 管理科学 • 上一篇

一类震灾人员受损估计方法及应用

黄星¹, 曾静¹, 刘洁²

1.西南科技大学经济管理学院,四川绵阳 621010;
2.东北林业大学土木工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150040

收稿日期:2018-07-20 出版日期:2019-11-25
作者简介:黄星(1979-),男,副教授,硕士生导师,博士后,研究方向:应急物流、信息分析与管理决策;曾静(1980-),女,博士,讲师,硕士生导师,研究方向:公众风险感知与应对行为决策.刘洁(1986-),女,博士后,副教授,研究方向:应急管理。
基金资助:
四川循环经济研究中心(基地)重点项目(XXJJ-1809,XXJJ-1821);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71601042);四川信息管理与服务中心重点项目(SCXX2018ZD02)

A Type of Estimation Model and Its Application for Earthquake Disaster Personnel Death

HUANG Xing¹, ZENG Jing¹, LIU Jie²

1. School of Economic and Management, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China;
2. School of Civil Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China

Received:2018-07-20 Online:2019-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高震灾人员受损估计模型的精度,本文提出震中烈度、震级、人口密度、房屋损毁面积和地震发生时间5个估计指标,并依据震灾人员受损的“两期”变动规律,将偏正态分布曲线引入震灾人员受损估计中,提出基于修正偏正态曲线的震灾人员受损估计模型。在模型改进上,以震中烈度为主变量,通过数据回归得到偏正态分布估计曲线;进一步,为提高模型的精度和稳定性,采用震级系数、人口密度系数、房屋损毁面积系数和地震发生时间系数对偏正态分布曲线的估计精度进行修正,通过系数的动态变动提高模型的估计精度。验证结果表明,与人工神经网络、多元线性估计曲线、高阶非线性和对数函数等估计模型相比,修正偏正态分布曲线具有敏感度低和估计精度高的优势,能为应急管理部门提供理论依据和方法借鉴。关键词:人员受损估计;地震灾害;偏正态分布曲线;“两期”规律

关键词: 人员受损估计, 地震灾害, 偏正态分布曲线, “两期”规律

Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of the estimation model for earthquake disaster death, the paper puts forward5 indexes for estimating the death amount after earthquake disaster, including epicenter intensity, magnitude, earthquake disaster occurrence time, population density and damaged area of building. It regards the “two-phase” laws of earthquake death distribution as the theory, and put forward the earthquake death estimation model based on the partial normal distribution cure, in which the main variable is the epicenter intensity. To improve the accuracy and stability of the estimation model, it amends the partial normal distribution cure by using the method of the coefficient adjustment. In other words, it uses some coefficient, including the magnitude coefficient, earthquake disaster occurrence time coefficient, population density coefficient and building damaged area coefficient, to mend the partial normal distribution cure. The experiment results show that the partial normal distribution cure has some advantages, including low sensitivity and high accuracy, compared with ANN, multivariate linear equation, high order nonlinear equation and logarithmic function. In total, the estimation model of earthquake death can be applied to practice.

Key words: death estimation for earthquake disaster, earthquake disaster, partial normal distribution cure, “two-phase” laws

中图分类号:

O232

黄星, 曾静, 刘洁. 一类震灾人员受损估计方法及应用[J]. 运筹与管理, 2019, 28(11): 191-199.

HUANG Xing, ZENG Jing, LIU Jie. A Type of Estimation Model and Its Application for Earthquake Disaster Personnel Death[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2019, 28(11): 191-199.

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一类震灾人员受损估计方法及应用

A Type of Estimation Model and Its Application for Earthquake Disaster Personnel Death

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