Secure and Economic Operating Model for Power System Considering Wind Power and Load Forecasting Errors

doi:10.12005/orms.2017.0124

Operations Research and Management Science ›› 2017, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 170-175.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2017.0124

• Application Research • Previous Articles Next Articles

Secure and Economic Operating Model for Power System Considering Wind Power and Load Forecasting Errors

XUE Song¹, OUYANG Shao-jie², ZENG Bo², CHEN Tian-qiong³

1. State Grid Energy Research Institute, Changping District, Beijing 102209, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China;
3. State Power Economic Research Institute, Changping District, Beijing 102209, China

Received:2014-07-10 Online:2017-05-25

考虑风电出力及负荷预测误差的安全经济运行模型

薛松¹, 欧阳邵杰², 曾博², 陈天穹³

1.国网能源研究院,北京昌平区 102209;
2.新能源电力系统国家重点实验室华北电力大学,北京昌平区 102206;
3.国网北京经济技术研究院,北京昌平区 102209

作者简介:薛松(1986-),男,山东淄博人,工程师,博士,主要研究方向为智能配网投资与决策;欧阳邵杰(1989-),男,浙江杭州人,博士研究生,研究方向:低碳电力系统;曾博(1987-),男,讲师,博士,研究方向:配电网规划;陈天穹(1989-),女,安徽萧县人,工程师,硕士,研究方向:工程造价分析与管理。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71271082);国家电网公司科技项目(SGERI06KJ〔2015〕63)

Abstract

Abstract: Considering wind power and load forecast uncertainties, the concept of net load has been brought forward, which takes error probability distributions of wind power forecast and load forecast in consideration comprehensively. Through scene probability research, secure and economic operating model is built, minimizing total operation cost which consists of deterministic cost and stochastic cost. The example has verified that the stochastic model is much more effective in reducing operation cost than the traditional deterministic operation planning model. It is also confirmed that installing wind power capacity, according to power system capacity and load demand responsiveness, is of great importance in reducing wind energy spillage and improving power supply reliability.

Key words: wind power forecasting, load forecasting, net load, secure and economic operating

摘要： 充分考虑了风电并网和负荷预测不确定性,引入净负荷的概念,实现对风电和负荷预测误差发生概率的综合考虑。通过场景概率的研究,以包括确定性成本和随机性成本在内的综合调度成本最小化为目标函数,构建安全经济运行模型。算例分析表明,本文构建的随机安全运行计划模型相比于传统的确定性模型能够更有效地降低系统运行成本,结果同时显示,根据系统容量和负荷需求合理配置风电装机容量,是减少弃风量、提高供电可靠性的重要手段。

关键词: 风电出力预测, 负荷预测, 净负荷, 安全经济运行

CLC Number:

TM615
C931.1

XUE Song, OUYANG Shao-jie, ZENG Bo, CHEN Tian-qiong. Secure and Economic Operating Model for Power System Considering Wind Power and Load Forecasting Errors[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2017, 26(5): 170-175.

薛松, 欧阳邵杰, 曾博, 陈天穹. 考虑风电出力及负荷预测误差的安全经济运行模型[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(5): 170-175.

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Secure and Economic Operating Model for Power System Considering Wind Power and Load Forecasting Errors

考虑风电出力及负荷预测误差的安全经济运行模型

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