Abstract: The implicit debt of local government has become the potential inducement of systemic financial risk, but the proportion of implicit debt that requires direct responsibility of government finance is difficult to determine, which leads to the fact that debt risk cannot be accurately measured. This study constructs the KMV model, the ROA-based burden model and the market equilibrium model of credit debt. Focused on two main types of implicit debt, local state-owned enterprise debt and financing platform debt, the conversion rate of them into government financial burden is determined, and the local government debt risk is measured. The results show: between 2011~2018, the conversion rate of local state-owned enterprise debt into local government financial burden is between 5.03% and 9.13%, and the conversion rate of financing platform debt is between 60.29% and 82.31%. Local government implicit debt rose from 2.56 trillion yuan in 2011 to 12.2 trillion yuan in 2018, and the proportion rose from 24.5% to 43.4%. It indicates that implicit debt has become an important part of local government debt and the current regulations of local debt have not effectively stopped the implicit debt expansion. The scale of local government debt is expanding year by year, and the probability of default rose from 0 to 3.07%, meaning that the risk has risen from non-default risk to medium risk range. Furthermore, the result also shows that there are obvious regional characteristics of government debt risk.

Key words: implicit debt, conversion rate, debt risk, KMV model

摘要： 地方政府隐性债务已经成为系统性金融风险的潜在触发点,但由于隐性债务需要政府财政直接负担的比例难以确定,导致其实质风险无法准确测算。本研究构建了KMV模型、基于ROA的负担模型以及信用债的市场均衡模型,着重研究隐性债务中的两类主要债务,地方国有企业债务与融资平台债务转化为政府财政负担的转化率,并测算地方政府债务风险。研究表明:2011-2018年之间,地方国有企业债务转化为地方政府财政负担的转化率在5.03%~9.13%之间,融资平台债务转化率在60.29%~82.31%之间。地方政府隐性债务规模由2011年的2.56万亿元上升到了2018年的12.2万亿元,占比也由24.5%上升到43.4%,说明隐性债务已经成为地方政府债务的重要组成部分。地方政府综合债务规模逐年扩大,债务违约概率由0上升到3.07%,从无违约风险上升到中等风险区间,且地方政府债务风险存在明显区域特征。

关键词: 隐性债务, 转化率, 债务风险, KMV模型