Abstract: In order to measure the influence and transmission mechanism of environmental governance policy on output,emission reduction, factor allocation, consumption and output structure, heterogeneousconsumer preference, output heterogeneous, and environmental utility loss function are introduced into E-DSGE model. The policy intensity, technological progress, emission tax and consumption tax policy are stronger, but environmental control and government pollution control expenditure impact is weaker. The policy effect andtechnological progress are the best, and achieve dual purpose of increasing production and reducing emissions, whichis conducive to promoting the allocation of factors and household consumption, the output and consumption structure of green. Pollution taxes and government spending are the second-best, achieving the win-win goals of increasing production and reducing emissions, and promoting a cleaner structure of supply and output of factors of production, which is not conducive to improving consumption and consumption structure. Environmental control and consumption tax are the worst,reducing emissions at the expense of output, not conducive to factor allocation, and the effect of promoting cleaner output and consumption structure is weak. Consumption tax will restrain consumption, but the higher proportion of environmentally friendly householdsthe stronger the effect of the consumption tax.

Key words: environmental governance, E-DSGE, Bayesian estimation, consumption heterogeneity

摘要： 为测度环境治理政策波动对产出、减排、要素配置、消费与产业结构的影响及其传导机制,将异质性消费偏好、产出差异性、环境效用和环境损失函数引入E-DSGE模型。政策强度分析发现,技术进步、排污税和消费税政策效果较强,环境控制和治污支出冲击效果较弱。政策效应分析发现,技术进步政策效应最优,能实现增产和减排双重目标,促进要素配置和居民消费、产出与消费结构改进;排污税和政府治污支出政策次优,能实现增产和减排的双赢目标,促进要素供给和产出结构清洁化,不利于消费提升和消费结构优化;环境控制与消费税政策效果最差,以牺牲产出实现减排,不利于要素配置,产出与消费结构改进效果较弱,消费税会抑制居民消费,但消费税政策效果随环境友好型家庭比例提升而加强。

关键词: 环境治理, E-DSGE, 贝叶斯估计, 消费异质性