Abstract: Due to changes in exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, together with the complexity of the dual-channel supply chain relationships, a company’s cash flow often features significant volatility. This paper studies the manufacturer's decision to hedge cash flow under the dual-channel sales model. The author focuses on a scenario where a monopoly operates a dual-channel sales model consisting of a distributor and online sales and uses cash flow to increase production efficiency via internal financing. In this scenario,the author studies how this company makes hedging decision considering cash flow fluctuations, market demand, sensitivity for alternative products, and wholesale. The equilibrium problem of manufacturers under the dual-channel sales model is one major part of this paper. Besides, the author compares the equilibrium solutions under the two kinds of decisions and finally gives an intuitive conclusion through numerical analysis: If the maximum market demand and the sensitivity for alternative products increase, companies prefer to choose hedging; However, if the cash flow fluctuations and wholesale prices increase, hedging is out of the companies’ consideration.

Key words: alternative products, dual channels, cash flows, hedge

摘要： 由于汇率、利率、商品价格的变化以及双渠道供应链关系的复杂性,企业的现金流存在较大的波动性。本文研究双渠道销售模式下,制造商对现金流进行套期保值的决策问题。重点关注垄断企业在拥有一个分销商和线上销售的双渠道销售模式下,并利用内部融资将现金流用于提高生产效率时,如何根据现金流的波动程度、市场需求、替代产品敏感系数以及批发价格进行套期保值决策。研究了双渠道销售模式下制造商的均衡问题,比较了两种决策下的均衡解,并通过数值分析给出了直观的结论:市场最大需求与替代产品敏感系数增加时,企业更倾向于选择套期保值;现金流波动程度与批发价格增加时,企业更倾向于不选择套期保值。

关键词: 替代产品, 双渠道, 现金流, 套期保值