Abstract: The development of renewable energy is beneficial for improving the energy structure and reducing the use of traditional energy sources, which helps mitigate the adverse effects of carbon dioxide emissions and achieve sustainable social and economic development. In-depth research on the impact of renewable energy development on carbon dioxide emissions and its heterogeneous pathways is of great significance for guiding China in adopting differentiated carbon reduction strategies and achieving the “dual carbon” goals.
The article first conducts a theoretical analysis based on the mechanisms through which renewable energy development impacts carbon dioxide emissions. It then examines, from a theoretical perspective, the carbon reduction effects of green technological innovation and institutional quality on renewable energy development. Next, empirical tests are carried out using traditional models and finite mixture models, incorporating accompanying variables to assess their impact on carbon dioxide emission reductions. Furthermore, the study investigates the probability of pathway transitions and uses two-sided T-tests to examine whether there are differences between the pathways with respect to the two accompanying variables-institutional quality and green technological innovation. Finally, robustness and endogeneity tests are performed by replacing the dependent variable, using two-sided trimming, and introducing lagged accompanying variables.
The study finds that: First, after robustness and endogeneity tests, it is found that the development of renewable energy in China can significantly suppress carbon dioxide emissions, and the impact on carbon dioxide emissions follows three distinct pathways. Most provinces belong to the “comprehensive development” pathway, which promotes carbon dioxide reduction by optimizing both energy efficiency and energy structure simultaneously. Second, institutional quality and green technological innovation, as accompanying variables, both effectively enhance the carbon reduction effects of renewable energy development. Moreover, the higher the level of institutional quality and green technological innovation, the greater the likelihood that provinces will belong to the “comprehensive development” pathway. Third, the results of the dynamic pathway transitions show that most eastern regions have been already on the “comprehensive development” pathway at the early stage of the study, while many central and western regions have undergone pathway transitions, shifting from the “energy efficiency improvement” or “energy structure adjustment” pathways to the “comprehensive development” pathway. The improvement in institutional quality and green technological innovation levels are key factors driving these provincial pathway transitions.
Based on the research conclusions, the following recommendations are made: First, we should vigorously develop renewable energy. The government should increase financial investment in renewable energy, and each province in China should develop renewable energy according to its own geographic and resource endowments. Second, we should strengthen green technology research and innovation. Governments should increase investment in renewable energy R&D and promote green technological innovation, while also boosting subsidies for corporate green technology innovation. Third, we should steadily promote institutional innovation. Policymakers should enhance their institutional advantages, implement stricter and more effective environmental policies, and strengthen the carbon reduction effects of renewable energy development.

Key words: renewable energy development, carbon dioxide emissions, heterogeneity

摘要： 本文基于可再生能源发展对二氧化碳排放的影响机理,采用有限混合模型探讨可再生能源发展对二氧化碳排放影响的异质性路径,并引入制度质量和绿色技术创新作为伴随变量,解析存在异质性路径的内在逻辑。研究结果表明:(1)在经过一系列稳健性和内生性检验后,发现可再生能源发展能够显著抑制二氧化碳排放,且通过三条路径对二氧化碳排放产生影响,大部分省份隶属于“综合发展型”路径。(2)制度质量和绿色技术创新均能有效强化可再生能源发展的二氧化碳减排效应,且二者水平越高,各省份隶属于“综合发展型”路径的概率就越高。(3)东部省份大多没有发生路径转换,而大部分中西部省份发生了路径转换,由“提升能源效率型”路径或“能源结构调整型”路径向“综合发展型”路径转换,且制度质量与绿色技术创新水平的提高是促使各省份发生路径转换的关键因素。

关键词: 可再生能源发展, 二氧化碳排放, 异质性