Abstract: Employment of integration is a key way for sustainable development of people with disabilities. Based on the evolutionary game theory and employment promotion policy for the disabled, this paper establishes the dynamic evolution model of the interaction process between the disabled and the employing units (enterprises), and uses the numerical experiments to show the influence of the initial condition change and the different values of the decision variables on the evolution of the system. It is found that the path system of employment behavior of the disabled converges to good mode and “locked” state. The probability of convergence of parameters in different models is significantly changed or the change is not obvious, which reveals the deep-seated reasons for the unsatisfactory effect of the employment of the disabled in reality. Increasing the salary and psychological benefits of the people with disabilities, and the value created for enterprises, and reducing the social assistance、human and social capital of the disabled, and increasing the legal proportion of employment of disabled persons、the reputation gains of enterprises employing disabled persons、the VAT refund (the enterprise meets the tax rebate conditions) and the number of haired disabled persons, and reducing the input with enterprises supporting the employment of the disabled people, etc., can increase the probability that the system will evolve into a good state. In order to develop a flexible and effective employment policy and measures for the disabled, thisstudy points out the directions: the multi-objective co-governance, the benefit sharing and the benign interaction, to jump out of the bad “lock” state, and realize the benign development of employment behavior of the disabled, so as tocrack the employment problem.

Key words: evolutionary game, employment of disabled people, business employment, system engineering, policy regulation

摘要： 融合就业是残疾人可持续发展的关键途径。基于演化博弈理论和残疾人就业促进政策,建立残疾人与用人单位(企业)行为交互过程的动态演化模型,用数值实验展示了初始条件改变和决策变量不同取值对系统演化结果的影响。研究发现,残疾人就业行为路径演化系统收敛于良好状态和“锁定”状态两种模式;调控模型中的参数收敛于不同模式的概率发生显著变化或变化不明显,揭示了现实中残疾人就业治理效果不理想的深层次原因;通过提高残疾人的工资待遇、心理收益、为企业创造的价值,减少残疾人的社会补助与就业付出的人力和社会资本,增加残疾人就业法定比例、企业雇佣残疾人的声誉收益、增值税退税优惠(企业符合退税条件)与雇佣残疾人数量,减少企业支持残疾人的就业投入等均能使系统演化到良好状态的概率增加。这为制定灵活有效的残疾人就业制度、政策与措施提供了较大的操作空间,多元主体协同治理,利益共享,良性互动,以跳出不良“锁定”状态,实现残疾人就业行为良序发展,破解就业难题。

关键词: 演化博弈, 残疾人就业, 企业雇佣, 系统工程, 政策规制