Emergency Resource Allocation Model Based on Demand Forecasting of Domino Effect

doi:10.12005/orms.2019.0254

Abstract

Abstract: Typhoon has strong destructive power, and often leads to a series of chain events that lead to Domino effect. Based on the analysis of the Domino effect of the initial accident, this paper constructs an emergency disaster relief network.First of all, this paper analyzes the development mechanism of the initial accident Domino effect, and combines empirical estimation method to establish a number of different situations.Then, the two stage emergency resource allocation planning model is established, and the robust optimization and the scenario relaxation algorithm are used to solve the model, and a reasonable resource allocation scheme is obtained.A case study is proposed to highlight the efficiency of the proposed model and solution algorithm.

Key words: domino effect, emergency resource allocation, scenario relaxation, robust optimization

摘要： 台风自然灾害具有强大的破坏力经常会引起一系列的连锁事件导致多米诺效应。本文考虑在对初始事故多米诺效应分析的基础上预测应急资源的需求,并建立应急资源配置的鲁棒优化模型。首先,本文对初始事故多米诺效应发展机理进行分析,并结合经验估计方法确定若干不同情景,进行应急资源需求预测;然后,建立了两阶段应急资源配置规划模型,并利用鲁棒优化的思想和情景松弛算法对模型进行求解,从而得到合理的资源配置方案。数值实验表明,建立的模型是有效并且可行的。

关键词: 多米诺效应, 应急资源配置, 情景松弛, 鲁棒优化

CLC Number:

O224

ZHANG ling, LAN yun. Emergency Resource Allocation Model Based on Demand Forecasting of Domino Effect[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2019, 28(11): 98-105.

张玲, 赖芸. 基于多米诺效应需求分析的应急资源配置模型研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2019, 28(11): 98-105.

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