一种面向多预案整合的层次网络模型

doi:10.12005/orms.2016.0026

运筹与管理 ›› 2016, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 203-214.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2016.0026

一种面向多预案整合的层次网络模型

汪婧^1,2, 荣莉莉¹

1.大连理工大学系统工程研究所,辽宁大连 116024;
2.福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州 350108

收稿日期:2014-01-07 出版日期:2016-02-25
作者简介:汪婧(1985-),女,福建福州人,博士,讲师,研究方向:应急管理,复杂系统理论与方法. 荣莉莉(1964-),女,辽宁大连人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:应急管理,系统分析与评价。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(91024003); 国家自然科学重大研究计划集成平台项目(91024031)

Hierarchical Network Model of the Integration of Multiple Emergency Plans

WANG Jing^1,2, RONG Li-li¹

1.Institute of Systems Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 , China;
2.School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China

Received:2014-01-07 Online:2016-02-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 突发事件发生后,需要启动相应的应急预案来减少突发事件所带来的损失。根据灾害后果的不同,所启动的可能是一个预案,更可能是多个预案。为了使得启动的多个预案能够有效衔接,共同起到一个预案的作用,通过应急响应流程分析,首先,从基础概念出发对应急预案体系各要素的概念进行界定,理清各要素之间的相互关系,构建预案体系概念模型。其次,基于概念模型的要素和结构,采用网络的方法对预案体系进行抽象和分析,提出了预案体系的层次网络模型。最后给出了多预案模型整合流程和建模实例。研究结果表明,该模型不仅可以实现基于预案内容特征的流程的纵向整合,而且可以实现多个预案的横向整合,整合后的预案体系各类要素更完整,元素之间的关系更紧密,有效提高了预案体系的完备性,是实现预案修订以及有效性评估的基础。

关键词: 应急响应, 多预案整合, 预案体系, 概念模型, 层次网络模型

Abstract: After the emergencies occurr, it is necessary to start the emergency plan to reduce the disaster losses. Based on the difference of consequences of disasters, one or more emergency plans will be started. In order to make the started emergency plans effective convergence and play like a plan together, the integration oriented hierarchical network model of emergency plan system is proposed based on the analysis of the emergency process. Firstly, the basic conceptions and relationship of element of emergency plan system are analyzed and the conceptual model of emergency plan system is presented. Secondly, based on the elements and structures of the conceptual model, a hierarchical network model is presented. Finally, the building process of the integrated model and an example is given in order to illustrate the proposed model. The results show that the model not only aims at disaster consequence to achieve the integration modeling of the emergency process based on the content of emergency plan, but also achieves the integration modeling of multiple plans. The elements are more complete and the relationships between the elements are closer in the integrated model which improves the completeness of the emergency plan system effectively. The model provides basis for the revision and the effectiveness evaluation of emergency plans.

Key words: emergency response, the integration of multiple emergency plans, emergency plans system, the conceptual model, the hierarchical network model.

中图分类号:

N94
TP393

汪婧, 荣莉莉. 一种面向多预案整合的层次网络模型[J]. 运筹与管理, 2016, 25(1): 203-214.

WANG Jing, RONG Li-li. Hierarchical Network Model of the Integration of Multiple Emergency Plans[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2016, 25(1): 203-214.

参考文献

[1] 王飞跃,徐志胜.企业生产安全事故应急救援预案编制技术的研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2005,15(4):101-105.
[2] Ronald W P,Michael K L. Preparedness for emergency response: guidelines for the emergency planning process[J]. Disasters, 2003, 27(4): 336-350.
[3] 李湖生.如何提高突发事件应急预案的有效性[J]. 现代职业安全,2008,80(4):70-73.
[4] 詹承豫.中国应急管理体系完善的理论与方法研究—基于“情景—冲击—脆弱性”的分析框架[J].政治学研究,2009(5):92-98.
[5] 杜江,吴兆营.我国地震应急预案体系的现状分析[J].防灾科技学院学报,2011,13(2):71-74.
[6] 董存祥,王文俊,杨鹏.应急预案体系本体模型(EPSOnto)及应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2010,46(10):235-238.
[7] 谢迎军,朱朝阳,周刚,王理金.应急预案体系研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(3):214-218.
[8] 张海波.中国应急预案体系:结构与功能[J].公共管理学学报,2013,10(2):1-13.
[9] 杨峰,张抗抗.基于本体的应急预案知识表示模型研究. 中国管理科学,2009,17:664-667.
[10] Wang W J, Dong C X , Yang P. Ontology modeling of emergency plan systems[C]. The Sixth International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, 2009. 290-294.
[11] Rong L L,Sun Y. Research on the formal description of emergency plans[C]. The Eighth International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences, 2007. 4146- 4453.
[12] 李红臣,邓云峰,刘艳君.应急预案的形式化描述.中国安全生产科学技术[J].2006,2(4):29-34.
[13] 吴林锋,王刚,杨少春,余晓东.基于CBR的反导作战方案生成技术[J].空军工程大学学报(自然科学版),2011,12(5):45- 49.
[14] Tang P, Wang H W, Zeng W. Decision making based on emergency plan templates[J]. Advances in Neural Networks, 2009, 5551: 1181-1190.
[15] 于瑛英,池宏.基于网络计划的应急预案的可操作性研究[J].公共管理学报,2007,4(2):100-107.
[16] 唐攀,王红卫,王哲.基于预案模板的HTN规划知识建模方法及其应用[J].计算机科学,2010, 37(10):202-206.
[17] Adriaan T M, Jeroen V, Cees W. An event based task framework for disaster planning and decision support[C]. The 2nd International ISCRAM Conference, 2005. 151-153.
[18] Mark H, Catholijn M J, Viara P, Alexei S, Lai X. Formal modeling and comparing of disaster plans[C]. The 2nd International ISCRAM Conference, 2005: 97-107.
[19] Boppana V R, Sreenivasulu B, Mangalam M M. Model on-site emergency plan case study: toxic gas release from an ammonia storage terminal[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries. 1996, 9(4): 259-265.
[20] 荣莉莉.面向快速反应的应急决策知识需求及其供给方法研究[C].中国突发事件防范与快速处置优秀成果选编,2009:65-72.
[21] 刘吉夫,朱晶晶,张盼娟,陈晋.我国自然灾害类应急预案评价方法研究(Ⅱ):责任矩阵评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(4):5-15.
[22] 赵忠雷,覃征.用户界面设计中任务建模方法研究.计算机应用研究[J].2006,10:191-197.
[23] Anke D. More precise descriptions of temporal relations with in task model[C]. Interactive Systems Design, Specification and Verification: Computer Science, 2001, 1946. 151-168.

一种面向多预案整合的层次网络模型

Hierarchical Network Model of the Integration of Multiple Emergency Plans

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 2

编辑推荐

Metrics

[1]	汤敏, 刘斌, 李仕明, 李璞. 基于社会网络视角的突发灾害应急响应合作者关系网络分析——以“6·24”叠溪滑坡灾害为例[J]. 运筹与管理, 2021, 30(4): 103-108.
[2]	徐剑, 吴国秋. 基于体系工程与物流均衡的C2M服务制造物流体系结构模型[J]. 运筹与管理, 2020, 29(8): 128-136.