关键词: 交通运输规划与管理, 海上通道预警模型, 高维突变, 海上通道

Abstract: In order to accurately predict the coming danger level before the emergency of sea lines of communication happens, reduce the possible loss of emergency, and improve the management capability of pre-warning and emergency in the field of sea lines of communication, a new method is presented in this paper combining historical cases analysis and higher dimension catastrophe model to deal with the complexity of pre-warning for security of sea lines of communication. Through analyzing characteristics of historical cases, we obtain the risk factors and construct one index system of pre-warning. Then, we apply generalized catastrophe model which allows a higher dimension to construct safety pre-warning model and gets the threshold value based on the data from historical cases. Lastly, we select the actual case to test the model, and it is proved that the model is feasible and valid in setting the pre-warning level.

Key words: transportation planning and management, pre-warning model of sea lines of communication, higher dimension catastrophe model, sea lines of communication