乘客策略行为下考虑需求学习的航空客运动态定价策略研究

doi:10.12005/orms.2018.0093

运筹与管理 ›› 2018, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 118-125.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2018.0093

乘客策略行为下考虑需求学习的航空客运动态定价策略研究

李豪^1,2, 彭庆^1,2, 谭美容³

1.重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆 400074;
2.西部交通与经济社会发展研究中心,重庆 400074;
3.重庆工商大学融智学院经济学院,重庆 401320

收稿日期:2015-08-02 出版日期:2018-04-25
作者简介:李豪(1982-) ,男,四川乐山人,副教授,博士,研究方向:收益管理,交通运输经济等。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71402012);重庆市社会科学规划博士项目(2012BS42);重庆市教委自然科学基金(KJ130402)

Dynamic Pricing Strategy for Airline Tickets throughDemand Learning with Strategic Passengers

LI Hao^1,2, PENG Qing¹, TAN Mei-rong³

1.School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China;
2.Western China Transportation-Economy-Society Development Studies Center, Chongqing 400074, China;
3.School of Economics, Rongzhi College of Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 410320, China

Received:2015-08-02 Online:2018-04-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究航空公司在需求学习下的动态定价策略。通过假设乘客到达率不确定以及具有策略等待行为,运用贝叶斯理论和博弈论对航空公司需求学习下的多周期动态定价问题进行建模,探讨了机票最优定价策略的充分条件,并通过分析航空公司收益函数的性质,得到了最优定价随时间和已出售机票数量的变化趋势。最后应用算例分析了需求学习的效果,得出:需求学习能够缓解需求不确定带来的损失,但不能完全消除;乘客策略程度越大,需求学习效果越明显。

关键词: 需求学习, 策略乘客, 动态定价, 贝叶斯理论

Abstract: This paper researches the dynamic pricing strategy for airline tickets through demand learning to maximize its revenue. We introduce a dynamic pricing model by Bayes theory and game theory where there are strategic passengers and demand uncertainty of the passengers arrival rate, and discuss the sufficient condition of the optimal price strategy. We also analyze corresponding properties of revenue function and gain the variation tendency of the price with the time and the sold number in demand learning environment. Finally, we present numerical experiments to analyze the effectiveness of demand learning, and find that demand learning can ease the loss of revenue for airline in demand uncertainty market, but can not be completely eliminated; The higher degree of the passengers’strategy, the more obvious the effectiveness is.

Key words: demand learning, strategic passengers, dynamic pricing, bayes theory

中图分类号:

F272.3

李豪, 彭庆, 谭美容. 乘客策略行为下考虑需求学习的航空客运动态定价策略研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(4): 118-125.

LI Hao, PENG Qing, TAN Mei-rong. Dynamic Pricing Strategy for Airline Tickets throughDemand Learning with Strategic Passengers[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2018, 27(4): 118-125.

参考文献

[1]Su X M, Zhang F. Strategic customer behavior, commitment, and supply chain performance[J]. Management Science, 2008, 54(10): 1759-1773.
[2]Ovchinnikov A, Milner J M. Strategic response to wait-or-buy: revenue management through last minute deals in the presence of customer learning[J]. University of Toronto, working paper, 2005.
[3]Aviv Y, Pazgal A. Optimal pricing of seasonal products in the presence of forward-looking consumers[J]. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2008, 1(4): 1-21.
[4]Levin Y, McGill J. Optimal dynamic pricing of perishable items by a monopolist facing strategic consumers[J]. Production and Operations Management, 2009, 50(1): 128-143.
[5]Josef B, Paat R. Dynamic pricing under a general parametric choice model[J]. Operations Research, 2012, 60(4): 965-980.[6]李根道.模型不确定下的收益管理动态定价策略研究[D].重庆大学,2010.
[7]Aviv Y, Pazgal A. A partially observed markov decision process for dynamic pricing[J]. Management Science, 2005, 51(9): 1400-1416.
[8]Xu X, Hopp W J. Dynamic pricing and inventory control: the value of demand learning[J]. Operations Research. 2010, 55(9): 219-232.
[9]Lin K Y. Dynamic pricing with real-time demand learning[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2006, 174(1): 522-538.
[10]Talebian M, Boland N, Savelsbergh M. Pricing to accelerate demand learning in dynamic assortment planning for perishable products[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2014, 237(2): 555-565.
[11]Levina T, Levin Y, McGill J, Nediak M. Dynamic pricing with online learning and strategic consumers: an application of the aggregating algorithm[J]. Operations Research, 2009, 19(2): 426-440.
[12]李小翠,张玉林.顾客策略行为与贝叶斯需求学习下的易逝品定价[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,42(5):1021-1026.
[13]Gallego G, Van Ryzin G J. Optimal dynamic pricing of inventories with stochastic demand over finite horizons[J]. Management Science, 1994, 40(3): 999-1020.
[14]Levin Y, McGill J. Dynamic pricing in the presence of strategic consumers and oligopolistic competition[J]. Management Science, 2009, 55(1): 32-46.
[15]Kalyanam K. Pricing decisions under demand uncertainty: a bayesian mixture model approach[J]. Marketing Science, 1996, 15(30): 207-221.
[16]Diego E. Estimating dynamic demand for airlines[J]. Economics Letters, 2014, 124(1): 26-29.
[17]Li Y, Wang Y Z, Cui Q. Evaluating airline efficiency: an application of virtual frontier network SBM[J]. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2015, 81(3): 1-17.
[18]胡奇英,刘建庸.马尔可夫决策过程引论[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2000.

乘客策略行为下考虑需求学习的航空客运动态定价策略研究

Dynamic Pricing Strategy for Airline Tickets throughDemand Learning with Strategic Passengers

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 12

编辑推荐

Metrics

[1]	王道平, 宋雨情. 考虑消费者行为转化的零售商两阶段动态定价研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2021, 30(9): 152-157.
[2]	牛文举, 夏晶. 面向战略型消费者的产品创新与定价策略[J]. 运筹与管理, 2021, 30(5): 154-160.
[3]	侯福均, 翟玉冰, 胡玉生. 竞争环境下考虑顾客惰性行为的易逝品动态定价[J]. 运筹与管理, 2020, 29(9): 179-185.
[4]	段永瑞,徐超,霍佳震. 服务水平约束下动态定价与库存管理[J]. 运筹与管理, 2019, 28(5): 1-7.
[5]	胡玉生, 李金林, 冉伦, 陈亚红. 基于乘客惰性行为的平行航班动态定价[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(4): 112-117.
[6]	汪挺松, 李曼. 时间敏感型货物两阶段集装箱舱位分配问题研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(10): 1-10.
[7]	颜锦江, 郭春香, 龚浩. 面向网络外部性特征产品的供应链动态竞争策略研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2018, 27(10): 76-82.
[8]	蒋紫艳, 田澎. 考虑盗版容忍度的软件产品动态定价模型[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(12): 149-156.
[9]	胡玉生, 李金林, 冉伦, 赵天. 竞争环境下风险规避的航班动态定价[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(12): 157-164.
[10]	张大斌,杨斯琪,夏有新,李延晖. 一种电子商务环境下耐用品的动态定价模型与策略[J]. 运筹与管理, 2016, 25(2): 190-196.
[11]	高阳, 周向红, 李辉. 基于动态定价的再制造商主导的多周期多目标产品回收网络设计[J]. 运筹与管理, 2014, 23(3): 64-70.
[12]	陈晓红, 陈莎. 考虑消费者从众特性的动态定价研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2013, 22(4): 212-219.