关键词: 原油海运网络, 连通可靠性, 不确定理论, 最可靠路径选择

Abstract: Maritime transportation network of crude oil is the maritime lifeline of the crude oil importer. In order to scientifically measure the connectivity reliability of the maritime transportation network for crude oil, when nodes in the network are affected by the extreme events, this paper applies the uncertainty variable to describe the connectivity situation for each node after the occurrence of extreme events, and introduces the uncertainty theory to evaluate the connectivity reliability of the maritime transportation network for crude oil. It also establishes the most reliable path choice model for the uncertain maritime transportation network of crude oil. The uncertainty variable introduced in this paper can reflect the uncertainty of the maritime transportation network of crude oil caused by the extreme events, which no longer needs more historical data to calibrate the probability distribution of node failure. Meanwhile, the most reliable path choice model proposed in this paper can ensure timely delivery of crude oil after the occurrence of extreme events. This paper also presents α-most reliable path and very most reliable path choice problem, and provides the uncertainty distribution of the most reliable path, which offers basis for decision-makers to choose the path after the occurrence of extreme events. In this paper, China's maritime transportation network of imported crude oil is an example for the case study.

Key words: maritime transportation network of crude oil, connectivity reliability, uncertainty theory, selection of the most reliable path