运筹与管理 ›› 2019, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 5-12.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2019.0217

• 理论分析与方法探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于现存设施布局的设施选址:应对恐怖袭击

宋艳1, 滕辰妹2   

  1. 1,2. 哈尔滨工程大学 经济管理学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-30 出版日期:2019-10-25
  • 作者简介:宋艳(1974-),女,吉林榆树人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:管理信息系统、危机与灾害管理等;滕辰妹(1991-),女, 山东日照人,博士研究生,研究方向:选址决策,布局优化。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然基金资助项目(71771061);国家软科学基金资助项目 (2013GXS4D113);中央高校基金资助项目(HEUCFW170903);黑龙江省应用技术研究与开发计划项目(GC16D104)

Facility Location under Existing Facilities: Responses to Terrorist Attacks

SONG Yan1, TENG Chen-mei2   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
  • Received:2018-04-30 Online:2019-10-25

摘要: 本文研究了恐怖袭击事件下,政府和极端组织作为参与者的博弈选址问题。在这一博弈过程中,恐怖分子袭击城市以最大化其破坏效用,政府作为斯塔克博弈中的领导者预见恐怖组织的策略选择进行选址决策,以最小化损失程度。针对其中政府选址决策的对象,我们考虑了一种更接近现实的情形—基于现存设施布局的考量。面对这类在恐怖事件发生前就已经存在的反恐设施,本文重点探讨了政府何种情况下需要考虑设施的改建,以及如何进行应急设施的策略选择和选址定位。此外,考虑了固定设施数目与变量设施数目的情景,当设施数目固定时,把博弈问题看作一个设施的数学规划问题,构建基于现存设施的选址决策模型;讨论了设施数目为变量时政府的均衡效用。通过对20个城市的案例仿真,结果表明,对于政府而言,考虑设施改建的策略始终优于不考虑设施改建的策略。在考虑设施改建的选址策略下,当设施数量固定时,已建设施数量与改建设施数量相互制约,并与改建设施、新建设施成本一同影响着政府的均衡效用。政府的策略选择主要取决于改建设施成本的分布,在某些阈值区间范围内策略相同。当设施数量为变量时,政府的均衡效用不是K的单调函数,此时,可以建设少于K个数量的设施达到建立K所得到的效用。

关键词: 反恐设施选址, 设施改建与新建, 均衡策略, 变量设施数量

Abstract: The paper studies a location game underneath (in case of) the terrorist attack with astate and an extremist organization being two players, in which the terrorist attacks cities to maximize its utility while the state being a leader in the Stackelberg CompetitionModelforesees terrorist tactics to make location decisions for minimizing its loss.For the object of location decision, we deliberate a more realistic scenario: consideration of the existing facilities’ layout. Faced with these existing facilities, which have already been there before terrorist incident, weconductcasestudies of 20 urban areas todiscusswhen to consider the reconstruction or construction, as well as how to carry out the strategic choice. In addition, the location game is regarded as a mathematical programming problem in the condition among both fixed and variable number of facilities,and the location decision model based on existing facilities is constructed. At the same time, the state’s equilibrium utilities are discussed when the number of facilities is a variable. The consequences demonstrate that, for the government, the strategy to consider rebuilding facilities is always better than a strategy that does not consider rebuilding facilities, and considering the rebuilding strategy, there is an inherent relationship between the building numbers and rebuilding numbers when the facilities number is fixed, which poses an effect on the equilibrium strategy together with their cost parameters. The state’s strategychoice mainly depends on the ratio between the two cost parameters, and keeps constantin some threshold areas. The change rule of optimal gross facilities number exists when the number of facilities is variable. The government's equilibrium utility is not a monotonic function of K, Namely, the state can use fewer facilities than K butachieve the goal of K facilities.

Key words: a location game, facilities rebuilding and building, equilibrium utilities, variable number of facilities

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