关键词: 技术生态位, 技术变迁模式, 转变, 去结盟与再结盟, 技术替代, 重组

Abstract: On purpose of elaborating mechanisms of different technological transition pathways, we complete the agent-based simulation using NetLogo based on the theory of technological niches. The results of the research has shown that, the existence as well as the strength of exterior interference of technology is the essence in achieving technological transition through transformation pathway; the pathway of de-alignment and re-alignment would lead the niche network to reveal sectional connectedness but dominant design to appear blank; technological substitution pathway facilitates new technology to establish market power through technological niches accumulation and extension, thus gradually knocking regime technology out of the market; reconfiguration pathway has successful technological innovation as the premise and promotes the emergence of break-through innovation, implementing technological revolution at its deepest way. This research makes contribution to technological niches theory both theoretically and methodologically. Meanwhile the conclusions would provide helpful reference for policy-making in technological transition studies based on managerial practice.

Key words: technological niches, technological transition pattern, transformation, de-alignment and re-alignment, technological substitution, reconfiguration