关键词: 能源结构, 碳排放强度, 贡献潜力, 情景预测

Abstract: This paper mainly studies the potential contribution of optimizing primary energy consumption structure to carbon intensity in Hebei province. First of all, the scenario prediction model is used to forecast the future GDP and total energy consumption in Hebei province; then the Markov chain model is built to predict the future energy consumption structure in Hebei province and optimization thought is applied to optimize the calculated average transfer probability matrix; finally 27 composite scenarios are used to evaluate the potential contribution of energy consumption structure optimization to the carbon intensity target of Hebei province in 2020. The results show that the structural adjustment of energy consumption in varying composite scenarios can promote the carbon intensity decrease to various degrees, contributing to the realization of carbon intensity targets at different levels. However, even under the most ideal conditions the contribution potential rate is only 16.7%~17.8%. Therefore, the potential contribution of energy consumption structure optimization to carbon intensity targets in Hebei province is limited, which means that the goal of carbon intensity in Hebei province cannot be fully achieved only by optimizing the energy structure. We must rely on the combined efforts of the government, enterprises, and all sectors of society to take a series of measures in order to fully achieve the goal set in the “13th Five-Year Plan”of the province.

Key words: energy structure, scenario prediction, carbon emission intensity, contribution potential