关键词: 绿色税, 价格折扣政策, 新能源汽车, 参考效应

Abstract: Compared with conventional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles offer significant advantages such as low fuel consumption and reduced emissions, which can effectively alleviate environmental pollution and mitigate the energy crisis. Recognizing these benefits, the Chinese government introduced a subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2010 to encourage their widespread adoption. This policy aimed to accelerate the transition to cleaner transportation and reduce the nation’s reliance on fossil fuels. However, the sustainability of these subsidy policies has been called into question due to incidents of “subsidy cheating” by some automakers. As a consequence, the Chinese government decided to phase out the subsidy policy, with a complete expiration set for 2023, marking the beginning of a “post-subsidy” era for new energy vehicles. In this new phase, potential strategies include enhancing regulatory frameworks, investing in research and development, improving infrastructure for electric vehicles, and encouraging market-driven solutions. By focusing on these areas, China can continue to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market, drive technological advancements, and achieve its environmental and energy goals.
As new energy vehicles are relatively new products developed in the last decade, consumers often lack knowledge about them and tend to compare them with conventional fuel vehicles when making purchase decisions. This behavior, known as the reference effect, can affect the effectiveness of price rebates and green fiscal policies. This paper constructs a game model involving the government, firms and consumers, analyses these two promotional policies taking into account the reference effect, and discusses the optimal policies.
The results suggest that: (i)Regardless of the value of the consumer purchase reference effect, the implementation of the green tax and price discount policy is beneficial to the promotion of new energy vehicles. (ii)When consumers prefer new energy vehicles, the optimal policy choice of the government is not affected by the consumer purchase reference effect, and the green tax policy is always the optimal choice of the government; when consumers prefer fuel vehicles, the optimal policy choice of the government is affected by the consumer purchase reference effect, i.e., the green tax policy is the optimal choice of the government when the consumer purchase reference effect is small; the price discount policy is the optimal choice of the government when the consumer purchase reference effect is large. When the consumer purchase reference effect is small, the green tax policy is the optimal choice for the government; when the consumer purchase reference effect is large, the price discount policy is the optimal choice for the government. (iii)The optimal new energy vehicle support policy is affected by the greenness of new energy vehicles and the marginal pollution damage of fuel vehicles. The relationship between these factors and the optimal policy is moderated by the consumer purchase reference effect.
Our findings have significant practical implications for the formulation of government policies aimed at promoting sustainable development, particularly in the automotive sector. Firstly, we have determined that both price rebate schemes and green tax policies are effective tools for encouraging the adoption of new energy vehicles. This suggests that governments should conduct thorough and comprehensive studies to establish the optimal tax rate that would maximize the benefits of these policies. Secondly, our research indicates that in the current market context, where the majority of consumers still prefer gasoline vehicles, either a price rebate or a green tax policy can be effectively implemented to promote new energy vehicles. However, as consumer preferences evolve and shift towards new energy vehicles, the green tax policy emerges as the more optimal approach. This implies that while price rebates are beneficial in the short term, in the long run, governments should strategically plan to transit towards green tax policies to sustain and accelerate the growth of the new energy vehicle market. Therefore, it is crucial for government policymakers to anticipate this shift in consumer preferences and prepare to implement green tax policies in the near future. By doing so, they can ensure a smoother transition and continued support for the new energy vehicle industry as subsidies are phased out. This paper provides valuable insights that can guide the promotion of new energy vehicles and support the development of the new energy vehicle industry in the post-subsidy era, ultimately contributing to environmental sustainability and energy conservation. In summary, our findings underscore the importance of adaptive and forward-thinking policy measures. Governments should leverage the dual approach of price rebates and green tax policies based on current market dynamics and future trends, ensuring a robust framework for the promotion and growth of new energy vehicles.

Key words: green tax policy, price discount policy, new energy vehicle, reference effect