关键词: 宏观经济, 涟漪效应, 非参数秩排序检验, 房屋销售价格, 格兰杰检验

Abstract: This study’s objective is to solve the problem of ripple effects of real estate sales prices volatility among Chinese Eastern, Central and Western Cities. Granger causality test, cointegration integration, and a two-stage procedure of non-parametric testing and business cycle dating techniques are applied to nine cities on behalf of China’s eastern, central and western month data from July, 2005 to March, 2010. Empirical results show that: (1)housing price fluctuations among nine Chinese cities do have ripple effect. We divide the cities into three layers: Shenzhen, Shanghai and Hangzhou of the east as the first layer; Wuhan, Hefei and Taiyuan of the center as the second; and Xi’an, Chengdu, and Lanzhou of the west as the third one. (2)The ripple effect is from eastern cities, then to central cities, and at last to western cities. Housing prices of eastern cities should be the main regulatory objects; (3)Central cities should be our concern and intense fluctuations of housing prices of western cities should be avoided. So, the government should make differential regulatory policies for cities in different layers, which is a more efficient way to control the whole system of housing prices.

Key words: macroeconomic, ripple effect, non-parametric rank order testing, real estate sales prices, Granger causality test