关键词: 产品信息扩散, 转发动机, 兴趣衰减效应, 两阶段过程模型, Bass模型

Abstract: This paper proposes and illustrates a product information diffusion model on a social network platform that integrates two-stage process model and improved Bass model. The two-stage process model of product information diffusion is established by considering the user’s forwarding motivation; the Bass model is improved by considering the user’s interest attenuation effect; and the product information diffusion model is proposed by combining the two-stage process model and the improved Bass model. The diffusion model is illustrated with diffusion data from movie trailers released by Sina Movies from November to December 2019, and the results are compared with the Bass model results. The results show that both user forward motivation and user interest attenuation effect have significant effects on product information diffusion; and the model are better than the Bass model in prediction accuracy and goodness of fit. The proposed model can be used to predict the forwarding amount of other information with different forwarding motivations and attenuation effects, and is especially suitable for the prediction of forwarding amount before and at the early stage of product information release, which is a supplement to the information diffusion model.

Key words: product information diffusion, motivation of forwarding, interest attenuation effect, two-stage process model, Bass model