关键词: 创新扩散, 负面口碑, 社会互动, 小世界网络, 多智能体仿真

Abstract: To explore the causes and mechanisms of innovation diffusion failure, negative word-of-mouth (WoM) is introduced into the micro-level of innovation diffusion model, and individuals' decision-making model under the influence of social interactions is established. Multi-agent-based simulation is conducted in small-world networks to explore the impacts of network structure, the proportion of resistance leaders, the innovativeness of opinion leaders, and the constraint of social norms on innovation diffusion. The results show that the diffusion curve considering negative WoM appears as an “S” shape, but the diffusion depth is limited. Highly clustered social networks are more conducive to innovation diffusion. The higher the proportion of resistance leaders, the lower the speed and depth of innovation diffusion, and the wider range the influence of negative WoM. When the proportion of resistance leaders surpasses that of opinion leaders, it will lead to diffusion failure. An increase in the innovativeness of opinion leaders can alleviate the impact of negative WoM and promote innovation diffusion. The influence of the constraint of social norms on innovation diffusion depth varies with network structure. The research not only enriches the existing innovation diffusion theory but also provides guidance on the formulation of innovation promotion strategies.

Key words: innovation diffusion, negative word-of-mouth, social interaction, small-world network, multi-agent-based simulation