关键词: 养老风险, 死亡率, 长寿风险, 生命周期框架, OLG模型

Abstract: Pension risk refers to the risk caused by the lack of life security, the contingency and uncertainty of survival risk for the elderly population. The increasing risk of longevity and the reduction of mortality are important factors affecting the risk of pension in China.Although China’s pension insurance system has the characteristics of multi pillar and diversification, the pension problem of Chinese residents is still very prominent, and the pension situation is still very serious.Relevant data show that 176 million people aged 65 and above in 2019, account for 12.6% of the total population, which undoubtedly shows that China’s population aging is very serious, which will bring huge risks to residents’ pension.According to the prediction of China pension actuarial report 2019—2050, by 2035, China’s urban basic endowment insurance will be completely exhausted, and the pension situation is very serious. The reason is that the pension risk makes the pension security system unsustainable due to population aging. The reason for the aging of the population lies in the reduction of mortality and the increase of longevity risk caused by the improvement of medical and health conditions.
From the perspective of individuals and families, investment, consumption decisions, life expectancy, health status and family composition structure have a direct impact on pension risk.From the social and national level, factors such as population age structure, economic development, pension security system and fiscal revenue and expenditure indirectly affect the pension risk.With the aggravation of population aging, the research of pension risk management has gradually penetrated into the fields of consumption and investment, derived the analysis framework of pension issues.The academia has conducted in-depth discussions on consumption, investment, policy parameters and pension insurance system.
Pension risk management can be studied from many aspects, and life cycle analysis is an important research perspective.According to the life cycle theory, analyzing the pension risk caused by longevity factors helps to solve the problem of the smooth transition from work to pension.In addition, the intergenerational pension risk cannot be ignored. OLG model is helpful to study the intergenerational pension risk management.When the government formulates and implements relevant pension policies such as “delayed retirement” and “pension” entering the market, it can better avoid pension risks only on the premise of adapting to the individual life cycle and population age structure.Therefore, this paper systematically reviews the research on the driving factors of pension risk (mortality and longevity risk), introduces the modeling process of life cycle framework and overlapping generations model (OLG), and reviews the literature on the application of life cycle framework and OLG model.
From the literature review and theoretical model research, there are still some deficiencies. We find: (1)There is a great correlation between the change of normal mortality rate and the change of fertility rate in the past. In recent years, scholars’ research on the prediction and modeling of mortality rate in China has been relatively few. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the mortality model in line with the survival characteristics of China’s population. (2)At present, in the research of pension risk management based on life cycle theory, there is uncertainty (fuzziness) in the model or parameters, and the deviation caused by fuzziness will produce greater risks. When studying the investment consumption problem of coping with pension risk, robust investment consumption strategy is particularly important. (3)Most of the previous studies on life insurance decision-making only have considered the situation that the child is raised and the beneficiary is the next generation. In further research, it is necessary to consider not only the expenditure on child support, but also the expenditure on the support of the older generation.
By combing the technologies and methods of pension risk at home and abroad, exploring the factors affecting pension risk, and combing the context of pension risk research through the life cycle framework and OLG model, this paper gets the following application enlightenment: (1)Building a reasonable multi-level and multi pillar endowment insurance system. This paper suggests that the government optimize and reform the current multi-level and multi pillar pension structure to ensure that each pillar maintains a reasonable proportion. (2)Further liberalizing the fertility policy to cope with the risk of pension. Fiscal subsidies should be combined to stimulate individual fertility desire and reduce the cost of child rearing and education, so as to effectively improve the population growth rate. (3)From the current situation of life expectancy in China, China will face huge pension risks. Therefore, we suggest that the government should improve the delayed retirement policy as soon as possible according to the actual situation in China, so as to effectively deal with the pension risk. (4)Developing the elderly care service industry to stimulate domestic demand. The government should speed up the development of the elderly care service industry and appropriately reduce the tax burden of the elderly care service industry.

Key words: pension risk, mortality, longevity risk, life cycle framework, OLG model