关键词: 数字经济, 低碳发展, 动态QCA

Abstract: Low-carbon development represents a significant trajectory for China’s future economic growth. The efficacy of the digital economy in driving low-carbon development has garnered widespread attention in recent years. Based on the group theory, this paper employs both qualitative and quantitative analyses, with NCA, dynamic QCA, and a mediation effect model to scrutinize the interplay between the digital economy and low-carbon development. It addresses key inquiries: Can the digital economy propel low-carbon development? What are its underlying mechanisms? What digital economy development patterns foster optimal low-carbon development?
The study reveals several key findings: (1)The digital economy significantly drives low-carbon development, with its effect remaining robust across various tests and displaying regional and temporal variations. (2)Apart from its direct impact, the digital economy also fosters low-carbon development by promoting technological advancement and industrial structure upgrading. (3)From a group perspective, NCA findings suggest that specific components of the digital economy are not indispensable for achieving significant levels of low-carbon development. (4)Dynamic QCA results reveal that informatization and digital transactions are key antecedent variables, pivotal for maximizing the digital economy’s role in driving low-carbon development through strategic promotion. At the same time, low antecedent variables are not an obstacle to driving low-carbon development. Playing the roles of active government and effective market, formulating appropriate digital and low-carbon development policies according to its own factor endowment and comparative advantages, they can continuously increase the accumulation of value, and through the accumulation of innovations in small steps, they can slowly but continuously climb up the value chain, and ultimately realize the low-carbon transformation.
Policy insights: Firstly, boosting investment in new-generation digital technology R&D, promoting Digital China and Gigabit Cities construction, and leveraging big data and AI to solidify the digital economy’s low-carbon development benefits. Secondly, addressing regional disparities in digital and low-carbon development by prioritizing informatization and digital transactions, and tailoring development policies based on regional endowments and advantages. Thirdly, utilizing digital intelligence to integrate innovation resources, fostering strategic and future industries, cultivating new quality productivity, and driving low-carbon development. Lastly, maximizing big data and smart tech for dual gigabit network penetration to enhance technological exchange and industrial structure upgrading for low-carbon development.

Key words: digital economy, low-carbon development, dynamic QCA