基于指标变异程度与关联程度组合赋权的中国工业结构转换能力动态综合评价

doi:10.12005/orms.2020.0158

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从需求因素、供给因素、技术因素、可持续发展和对外贸易五方面构建了中国工业结构转换能力评价指标体系,运用反映指标变异程度差异信息的熵值法和离差最大化法以及反映指标关联程度差异信息的BP-DEMATEL方法确定指标权重,然后运用最小距离—最大熵方法对不同的权重结果进行集成得到组合权重,以此权重对中国30个省份的工业结构转换能力进行了静态与动态评价。评价结果显示中国工业结构转换能力各省份非均衡发展现象突出,呈现从东向西阶梯状递减的规律。

关键词: 组合赋权, 产业结构转换, 工业结构转换能力, 动态评价

Abstract: The evaluation index system of China's industrial structure transformation capability is constructed from five aspects: demand factor, supply factor, technical factor, sustainable development and foreign trade. The entropy method, deviation maximisation method and BP-DEMATEL method are used to determine the difference information of index variation degree and the difference information of index correlation degree. Then, the combined weights are obtained by integrating the results of different weights with the minimum distance-maximum entropy method, and the industrial structure transformation capability of 30 provinces in China is evaluated with the combined weights. The evaluation results show that the unbalanced development of China's industrial structure transformation capability is prominent, showing a ladder-like decline from east to west.

Key words: combination weighting method, transformation of industrial structure, industrial structure transformation capability, dynamic evaluation

中图分类号:

F421

范德成, 方璘, 宋志龙. 基于指标变异程度与关联程度组合赋权的中国工业结构转换能力动态综合评价[J]. 运筹与管理, 2020, 29(6): 166-178.

FAN De-cheng, FANG Lin, SONG Zhi-long. Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation of China's Industrial Structure Transformation Capability Based on the Combination Weighting Method of Index Variation Degree and Index Correlation Degree[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2020, 29(6): 166-178.

参考文献

[1] 李平,付一夫,张艳芳.生产性服务业能成为中国经济高质量增长新动能吗[J].中国工业经济,2017(12):5-21.
[2] 谢伟丽,石军伟.产业结构转换研究述评[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2017(6):41-51,82,159.
[3] Laitner J. Structural change and economic growth[J]. The Review of Economic Studies, 2000, 67(3): 545-561.
[4] Rogerson R. Structural transformation and the deterioration of european labor market outcomes[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 2008, 116(2): 235-259.
[5] Buera F J, Kaboski J P. Scale and the origins of structural change[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 2012, 147(2): 684-712.
[6] Buera F J, Kaboski J P. The rise of the service economy[J]. The American Economic Review, 2012, 102(6): 2540-2569.
[7] Ngai L R, Pissarides C A. Structural change in a multisector model of growth[J]. The American Economic Review, 2007, 97(1): 429-443.
[8] Acemoglu D, Guerrieri V. Capital deepening and non-balanced economic growth[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 2008,116(3): 467-498.
[9] Sasidharan S, Lukose P J J, Komera S. Financing constraints and investments in R&D: evidence from indian manufacturing firms[J]. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2015, (55): 28-39.
[10] Lin J Y, Sun X F, Jiang Y. Endowment, industrial structure, and appropriate financial structure: a new structural economics perspective[J]. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 2013, 16(2): 109-122.
[11] Dekle R, Vandenbroucke G. A quantitative analysis of China's structural transformation[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2012, 36(1): 119-135.
[12] 王玉燕,林汉川,王建秀.中部地区工业结构转换能力:测度、趋同及影响因素[J].山西财经大学学报,2013,35(6):60-69.
[13] Moro A. The structural transformation between manufacturing and services and the decline in the US GDP volatility[J]. Review of Economic Dynamics, 2012, 15(3): 402-415.
[14] 李腊生.产业结构转换能力测定[J].统计研究,1993(2):35-39.
[15] 贺灿飞.中国地区产业结构转换比较研究[J].经济地理,1996(3):68-74.
[16] 李辉,陆道芬.资源环境约束下西部地区产业结构转换能力评价[J].工业技术经济,2014,33(7):26-34.
[17] 周明,喻景.创新驱动工业结构优化升级、转换能力及影响因素的实证研究——以重庆市为例[J].中国科技论坛,2016(3):62-68.
[18] 何伟,张小平,张志斌,方婷.区域城市化与产业结构转换能力的相关性——以甘肃省为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(7):51-56.
[19] 张小平,何伟.甘肃省产业结构转换能力的动态比较[J].经济地理,2010,30(2):279-282,272.
[20] 李占国,高志刚.基于组合评价的中国区域产业结构转换能力研究[J].经济问题探索,2007(8):35-39.
[21] 贺兵.基于主成分分析法的工业结构转化实证检验[J].统计与决策,2017(9):131-134.
[22] 徐建中,贯君.基于二元语义组合赋权的制造企业绿色创新能力评价模型及实证研究[J].运筹与管理,2017,26(4):124-131.
[23] 宋彦蓉,张宝元.基于地区现代化评价的客观赋权法比较[J].统计与决策,2015(11):82-86.
[24] Luo J L, Hu Z H. Risk paradigm and risk evaluation of farmers cooperatives' technology innovation[J]. Economic Modelling, 2015, 44: 80-85.
[25] Li C P, Qin J X, Li J J, et al. The accident early warning system for iron and steel enterprises based on combination weighting and Grey Prediction Model GM(1,1)[J]. Safety Science, 2016, 89: 19-27.
[26] 武春友,陈兴红,匡海波.基于AHP-标准离差的企业绿色度可拓学评价模型及实证研究[J].科研管理,2014,35(11):109-117.
[27] Li Z M, Fan Z X, Shen S G. Urban green space suitability evaluation based on the AHP-CV combined weight method: a case study of fuping county, china[J]. Sustainability 2018, 10(8), doi:10.3390/su10082656.
[28] Qin J D, Liu X W. Multi-attribute group decision making using combined ranking value under interval type-2 fuzzy environment[J]. Information Sciences, 2015, 297(C): 293-315.
[29] 迟国泰,齐菲,张楠.基于最优组合赋权的城市生态评价模型及应用[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(2):183-191.
[30] 朱喜安,魏国栋.熵值法中无量纲化方法优良标准的探讨[J].统计与决策,2015(2):12-15.
[31] 耿秀丽,董雪琦,徐士东.灰色关联分析与云模型集成的方案评价方法[J].计算机应用研究,2018(8):2351-2354,2359.
[32] 李珠瑞,马溪骏,彭张林.基于离差最大化的组合评价方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2013,21(1):174-179.
[33] 崔强,武春友,匡海波.BP-DEMATEL在空港竞争力影响因素识别中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(6):1471-1478.
[34] 秦晓楠,卢小丽.基于BP-DEMATEL模型的沿海城市生态安全系统影响因素研究[J].管理评论,2015,27(5):48-58.
[35] 成全,杨碧丽,许华斌,刘登福.原始性创新环境影响因素研究——基于BP-DEMATEL模型的实证[J].科学学研究,2016,34(4):591-600.
[36] 姚石,杨红娟.生态文明建设的关键因素识别[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(4):119-127.
[37] 陈鹏,张吉军.创新人才成长环境影响因子排序分析[J].统计与决策,2017(11):49-52.
[38] 李博,曾宪初.工业结构变迁的动因和类型——新中国60年工业化历程回顾[J].经济评论,2010(1):50-57.
[39] 李金昌,黄莺.工业结构变动率计算方法探讨[J].统计研究,2011,28(3):86-89.
[40] 范德成,杜明月.基于TOPSIS灰色关联投影法的高技术产业技术创新能力动态综合评价——以京津冀一体化为视角[J].运筹与管理,2017,26(7):154-163.
[41] 张立军,王叶平.综合评价模型相对有效性测度方法研究[J].统计与决策,2011(20):18-21.