Abstract: The inaccurate estimation of buffer time always has influence on the project planning and control of EPC project, in order to solve the problem effectively, on the basis of analyzing the current research achievement and existing problems of critical chain buffer setting, firstly, viewing the literature, designing questionnaires and collecting data, processing and analyzing data, the influence factors of EPC project buffer setting have been extracted through the exploratory factor analysis method, and 21 key influence factors of buffer setting are determined; Secondly, the process synthesis weights calculation model is constructed based on the weight of different factors and different factors have different effects on the process, meanwhile, introducing the process position weight and the risk elastic coefficient of processes operating time, a quantitative determination model of the project buffer and the input buffer is established; Finally, an example of EPC project is applied, argued the accuracy and operability of the key chain buffer setting model, referenced for the EPC project buffer setting.

Key words: project planning, buffer setting, critical chain, EPC project

摘要： 为有效解决EPC项目关键链缓冲区时间估计不够准确而影响项目进度计划编制与控制的问题,在分析现有关键链缓冲区设置方面研究成果及其存在不足基础上,首先采用探索性因子分析法,通过文献归纳、问卷设计与数据采集、数据处理与分析,进行了EPC项目缓冲区设置影响因素发掘与提取,提取出了21项EPC项目缓冲区设置关键影响因素;其次建立了基于影响因素权重及其对不同工序影响程度的工序综合权重计算模型,同时引入工序位置权重及工序作业时间风险弹性系数,构建了项目缓冲区及输入缓冲区定量确定模型;最后以某EPC项目为例进行了应用研究,论证了关键链缓冲区设置模型的准确性与可操作性,为EPC项目缓冲区设置提供了借鉴。

关键词: 进度计划, 缓冲区设置, 关键链, EPC项目