Abstract: To meet the needs of emergency “scenario-response”, provide support for oriented scenario decision-making from aspect of the specific, implementable emergency decision alternatives, enhance the science of decision-making, the paper proposes an emergency scenario decision-making support method based on emergency cases. According to the characteristics of emergency scenario revolution, we put forward the emergency’s scenario representation method, introduce the emergency decision-making scheme into the scenario representation. Then we retrieve the similar scenario from emergency cases based on scenario representation, get the emergency decision-making schemes from the similar scenarios, and divide the emergency decision-making scheme into hazard bearing body’s emergency measure vectors. We evaluate the emergency measure vectors from the aspects of income and subsequent impact. We rank the collection of emergency measure vectors and compose the decision-making scheme according to the evaluation results to support the scenario decision-making. Finally, we prove the feasibility of method through an example.

Key words: emergency event, scenario-response, emergency decision-making, scenario retrieve

摘要： 为满足突发事件“情景-应对”的需要,提供具体、可实施的应急决策方案,提升决策的科学性,提出了一种基于应急案例的情景决策支持方法。首先,根据突发事件情景演变的特点,提出突发事件的情景表示方法,将应急决策方案引入情景表示中。然后,在情景表示的基础上进行情景检索,获取相似情景中的应急决策方案,将其进一步分解为承灾体的应急措施向量。依据承灾体的应急措施向量在相似情景中实施的效果,从损益值、后续影响两方面对承灾体的应急措施向量进行评价并排序,依据排序结果组成当前情景的应急决策方案,为应急情景决策提供具体的支持。最后,通过实例验证了该方法的可行性。

关键词: 突发事件, 情景-应对, 应急决策, 情景检索