Abstract: Chinese steel patterns are predicted by using dynamic material flow analysis from 2014 to 2100. The results show that per capita steel stock will increase rapidly between 2014 and 2030s, then saturate after 2035. Total stock of steel will rise rapidly first and decline gradually according to the population growth scenario of medium variance at the United Nations. Chinese steel consumption peaked in about 2015. The output of steel will be more than the amount of consumption after 2035, and reach the maximum 30 years later than the consumption peak. Considering the steel patterns in the future, the production of steel should be arranged according to the time and quantity of consumption peak appeared, cut down before the peak; the processing ability of the steel output should be improved, the research of circulation technology should be strengthened, and the resource decoupling should be realized; the international steel market should be expanded by combining with the primary industrialized countries and releasing the excess capacity.

Key words: dynamic material flow analysis, per capita saturated stock, consumption peak, resources decoupling

摘要： 运用国际上新兴的动态物质流分析方法,对2014~2100年中国钢使用规律进行预测。研究发现,2014年至21世纪30年代,中国人均钢存量迅速增长,并于2035年以后达到饱和。在联合国中等方差人口增长情景下,2014年以后中国钢总存量出现了先迅速上升、后逐步下降的态势。中国未来钢消费量将于2015年左右达到峰值。2035年以后,钢退役量将超过钢消费量,并于消费峰值出现的30年后达到最大值。根据上述钢未来使用规律,中国应根据消费峰值出现的时间和数量合理安排钢的生产量,并于消费峰值出现之前做好减产准备;提高退役钢的处理能力,加强循环技术研究,实现资源解耦;开拓国际钢铁市场,与初级工业化国家进行产业联合,释放过剩产能。

关键词: 动态物质流分析, 人均饱和存量, 消费峰值, 资源解耦