Abstract: In order to compete for the same market resources, start-ups in emerging industry will show the gradual change or the abrupt change in the process of the industry evolution. There is a high degree of uncertainty involved in the change of startup value. For the purpose of reducing the uncertainty risk of the investment decision and obtaining the stable investment income, firstly we use the method of the option portfolio to carry out the estimated variables decision at the first stage. Secondly, according to the different returns of the options, we combine the linear programming technology to make a compensatory optimization decision at the second stage. Through Baba, JD, Apple and Nokia sample companies’ data, we test the actual effect of the two stages option programming decision model in this paper. The conclusion shows that the method can reduce the uncertainty interference effectively in emerging industries investment. The application of this decision model can obtain stable income, make the risk in a controllable state, and achieve the goal of optimizing investment decision.

Key words: the industrial gradation, the industrial mutation, option portfolio and programming

摘要： 新兴产业中处于横向竞争地位的初创企业,会呈现渐变和突变两种不同的演化状态。不同状态下的横向竞争企业,价值变化都具有高度的不确定性。为了降低投资决策的不确定性风险,获取稳定的投资收益,对处于渐变和突变状态下的初创企业,首先运用期权组合的方法,进行第一阶段的变量预估决策;然后依据期权投资的收益情况,再运用线性规划技术进行第二阶段的补偿优化决策。论文通过阿里巴巴、京东、苹果和诺基亚四家样本公司的数据,检验了两阶段期权规划决策模型的实际效果,结论显示该方法能降低新兴产业投资中的不确定性干扰,在获取稳定收益的同时,使风险处于可控状态。

关键词: 产业渐变, 产业突变, 期权组合及规划