Abstract: In conflict negotiation, the vital condition is that you have acquired opponent’s preference for mastering initiative in hands. In this paper, a method is proposed for obtaining the preference within the framework of graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR). Through in-depth analyses of the three stability definitions of Nash, GMR and SEQ in GMCR, some mathematical models are constructed to get the opponent’s preference, which include least constraint conditions using inverse way of thinking in this research. In the premise of having known the outcome of a conflict,the method can make the decision maker gain his opponent’s preference. The proposed approach is employed for the conflict, Chromium pollution in Luliang county, Qujing city, Yunnan province, in which there are two main decision makers: Environmental protection department of Yunnan province and Luliang chemical enterprise. First, the GMCR model of this conflict is established. Then, its preference and the final stability outcome are analyzed. Finally, using the mathematical models proposed above, the Environmental protection department of Yunnan province can obtain all of its opponent’s preference ranking which make it in an invincible position in conflict negotiation. At the same time, the method’s feasibility and validity are verified. The results from this research provide a valuable view for one side in the conflict negotiation.

Key words: inverse problem, graph model, conflict analysis, ordinal preference

摘要： 在冲突谈判中,能获知对手偏好是掌握谈判主动性的重要条件。本文基于冲突分析图模型理论构建了一种获取对手偏好的方法。该方法通过深入分析冲突分析图模型中Nash、GMR和SEQ三种稳定性定义,利用反向思维,建立求解对手偏好最少约束条件的数学模型。该方法能让决策者在预知冲突结局的前提下,得到对手的全部偏好信息。以“云南曲靖陆良县铬污染”冲突事件为例,通过对该事件引发的冲突进行建模和偏好分析,在已知冲突最终结局的前提下,运用数学模型,省环保厅可以得到陆良化工企业的所有偏好序,使其在冲突谈判中做到知己知彼,同时也验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。案例分析过程可以从战略层面为谈判中的一方提供参考。

关键词: 反问题, 图模型, 冲突分析, 有序偏好