Abstract: This paper introduces fuzzy mathematical theory based on structured element to technological innovation project evaluation and decision-making. On the basis of the reference points given by the decision maker, structured elements are used to represent fuzzy information and the gains-losses values are calculated. Furthermore, considering the psychological behavioral factors of decision makers, cumulative prospect theory is utilized to obtain fuzzy cumulative prospect value of each attribute with regard to different risk profile. With an integration method, the comprehensive cumulative prospect value of every project represented by structured element is acquired. On this basis, fuzzy ranking is carried out to rank and select projects with a proper weight function. Finally, an application example of the proposed method is provided to demonstrate its feasibility and effectiveness.

Key words: technological innovation project, structured element, cumulative prospect theory, fuzzy ranking method

摘要： 将基于结构元的模糊数学理论引入技术创新项目的评估决策,在决策者给出多属性决策指标参照点的情况下,使用结构元表示模糊信息并计算模糊损益值;进一步地,考虑决策者的心理行为因素,依据累积前景理论计算风险状态下各属性的模糊前景值,再集成为由结构元表示的项目模糊综合前景值;在此基础上,选取适当的权函数对项目进行模糊排序决策。最后给出一个具体的应用过程,验证了此方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 技术创新项目, 模糊结构元, 累积前景理论, 模糊排序