Abstract: Internet public opinions spread quickly and widely, and they are full of unexpectedness, uncertainty, and difficulty to control. These characteristics have posed great challenges to the concerned authority for police-involved interventions and guidance related to internet public opinions. Currently there is plenty of research on the guidance, control mechanisms and coping strategies about internet public opinions. However, when internet public opinion crisis evolution and intervention are concerned, the existing research is mostly qualitative and the quantitative approach is relatively lacking. Moreover, current research on internet public opinions is mostly limited to a certain stage of the public opinions development and fails to adopt a whole life-cycle perspective by looking at the multi-stage development of internet public opinions. When the few studies employing a multi-stage approach are further reviewed, they are cursory at most, ungrounded in any scientific, formal decision-making intervention mechanisms. Therefore, it is claimed that combining the multi-stage approach and the quantitative methodology is one of the directions for future research on decision-making intervention mechanisms related to internet public opinions. This article intends to describe the development of internet public opinions, state the condition and action expression in a quantitative manner, and eventually construct a classified multi-stage decision-making modelling framework.

Key words: Internet public opinions, decision-making intervention mechanism, multi-stage decision-making model

摘要： 网络舆情传播速度快、波及范围广,同时具有很强的突发性、不确定性、难以控制等特点,对相关部门进行涉警网络舆情干预和引导带来巨大挑战。目前有关网络舆情引导、管控机制、应对策略研究等成果丰富、但是对网络舆情危机的演变和干预多停留在定性分析之上、定量分析研究相对欠缺。现有网络舆情研究多针对舆情发展某一阶段进行研究,未结合网络舆情发展的多阶段属性展开全生命周期研究,为数不多的网络舆情多阶段干预决策机制研究也比较粗略,缺乏一套科学、规范的干预决策机制作为支撑。因此,结合网络舆情的多阶段属性、应用定量分析方法,是未来网络舆情干预决策机制研究的方向之一。本文通过对网络舆情发展过程的描述,给出一定量的状态表述和行动刻画,构建一个分类多阶段决策模型框架。

关键词: 网络舆情, 干预决策机制, 多阶段决策模型