Abstract: Vessels travelling at sea always face potential threats from vessel accidents and pirate attacks. In response to the two kinds of threats, and differences between different vessels risk preferences and economic benefit, this paper proposes a model considering the risk preferences of a vessel at sea to find a risk aversion path with the lowest risk. First of all, the model simulates the density of two potential threats using Gaussian mixture model, and then according to the differences in risk preferences between different vessels in the three factors, we use the cost distance analysis serial algorithm to get the risk aversion path at sea. At last, an example is verified, and it confirms that the model is practical and scientific.

Key words: water transportation, vessels preferences, risk aversion path, Gaussian mixture, cost distance analysis1

摘要： 运输船舶在海上航行时,一直面临着来自船舶事故和海盗袭击两方面的潜在威胁,针对上述存在的两种威胁,以及不同船舶对于船舶风险和经济效益的偏好区别,文章提出考虑船舶偏好的海上风险规避路径规划模型来为不同船舶规划最低风险行驶路径。模型首先运用高斯混合模型分别模拟两种潜在威胁的风险分布密度,其次根据不同船舶的偏好区别,综合船舶事故威胁,海盗劫持威胁以及经济效益三方面因素,采取GIS成本距离分析串行算法来得到海上风险规避路径。最后,文章将提出的模型进行了实例应用验证,结果印证了该模型的实用性与科学性。

关键词: 水上运输, 船舶偏好, 风险规避路径, 高斯混合, 成本距离分析