Abstract: Faced with increasingly severe environmental problems, in order to reduce the emission of pollutants from motor vehicles, Chinese governments have issued corresponding policies to encourage the development of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles mainly use electricity as the driving force, which can effectively reduce the degree of air pollution. In this paper, the system dynamics method is used to build the model. From the perspective of the system, the VENSIM software is used for simulation to explore the causes of the “green paradox”. The dynamic simulation results show that the policy has a significant effect on the implementation phase of the impact of new energy vehicles, but with the passage of time, the marginal utility of the policy will gradually reduce; and the increase of the total amount of new energy vehicles directly eats up or even exceeds the resources saved, and brings about the adverse consequences of the shortage of parking spaces and the increase of road congestion. In particular, this paper uses dynamic simulation to explore the effects of the development policy of new energy vehicles on the total energy consumption, degree of traffic congestion, side effects and parking space changes, so as to achieve the quantitative analysis of the “green paradox” effect and explore their reasons. Finally, some suggestions are put forward from the aspects of technology and policy.

Key words: system dynamics, simulation, green paradox, new-energy vehicle

摘要： 面对日益严峻的环境问题, 为减少机动车排放污染气体, 我国各地政府纷纷出台相应鼓励发展新能源汽车的政策。新能源汽车主要是采用电作为推动力, 能够有效降低空气污染程度。本文运用系统动力学方法建立模型, 从系统的角度出发, 采用VENSIM软件进行仿真模拟, 探究产生“绿色悖论”的原因。动态仿真结果显示, 政策对新能源汽车的影响实施阶段有显著效果, 但是随着时间的推移, 政策的边际效用会逐渐降低; 新能源汽车总量的上升直接吞噬甚至超出了其节约的资源, 而且带来了停车位紧张、道路拥挤度上升的不良后果。

关键词: 系统动力学, 仿真, 绿色悖论, 新能源汽车