A Movie Daily Demand Prediction Model Considering Consumption Motivation and Dynamic Competition

doi:10.12005/orms.2021.0197

Abstract

Abstract: This paper proposes and illustrates a daily movie demand prediction model considering consumption motivation and dynamic competition. A two-stage process model on movie consumption is advanced by taking account of consumption motivation of non-fans and fans consumers. The prediction model is proposed by integrating the two-stage process model and Bass model. The prediction model takes impacts of attention to movie before being released, word of mouth, and holiday on demand into consideration. The prediction model is illustrated with data of movies released from 2016 to 2017 in China, and compared with the Bass model. The results show that forecast accuracy of the prediction model is better than Bass model. Considering the dynamic market potential caused by competition and the increase of dynamic market potential by sequel effect and adaptation effect of fans consumers, this model can significantly improve the forecast accuracy. By considering attention to movie before being released and word of mouth, the prediction model may be useful for early prediction of movie daily demand. This model can be extended to other short life cycle experience products with dynamic competition and different consumption motivation, which is a supplement to Bass model.

Key words: prediction of movie daily demand, motivation of consumption, dynamic competition, Bass model, two-stage process model

摘要： 提出并验证考虑消费动机和动态竞争的电影日需求预测模型。考虑非粉丝及粉丝型的消费动机,构建电影消费两阶段过程模型;融合该模型和Bass模型,考虑竞争导致市场潜量的动态性,考虑映前被关注度、口碑、节假日对票房的影响,提出电影日需求预测模型。利用2016~2017年上映的电影数据验证该模型,并与Bass模型对比分析。结果显示,该模型预测效果优于Bass模型。因考虑竞争导致的动态市场潜量,考虑粉丝型消费者由续集效应及改编效应导致的动态市场潜量提升,该模型能显著提高预测准确度。利用映前被关注度和电影口碑数据,该模型能实现映前及上映早期的预测。该模型可推广至存在消费动机不同、市场动态竞争的其它短生命周期体验品的需求预测,是对Bass模型的改进。

关键词: 电影日需求预测, 消费动机, 动态竞争, Bass模型, 两阶段过程模型

CLC Number:

F272.1

TANG Zhong-Jun, ZHOU Ya-Li. A Movie Daily Demand Prediction Model Considering Consumption Motivation and Dynamic Competition[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2021, 30(6): 172-180.

唐中君, 周亚丽. 考虑消费动机和动态竞争的电影日需求预测模型[J]. 运筹与管理, 2021, 30(6): 172-180.

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