Abstract: To describe the cascading propagation problems of ecosystem vulnerability with continuous disturbance, we propose the vulnerability cascade propagation model (VCPM) based on functional geographic Petri net (FGPN). We comprehensively consider not only the directions of pollutant migration but also the geographical relationships between ecological subsystems. The pollution Petri net based on VCPM is constructed intuitively. On this basis, the concepts of vulnerability and ecological threshold are firstly defined. Then the relationship between them is used to analyze the probability with cascade propagation, so as to make clear the three states of cascading propagation. In this model, a study case of Shenfu coal field in Shaanxi Province of China is furthermore discussed. The obtained results are quite convincing in proving the novel contribution of this research to the field of vulnerability with cascading propagation analysis which might continue to be the reference for restoration and reconstruction of the environment.

Key words: mineral dust emission, pollution network, functional geographic Petri net, cascading propagation

摘要： 为了解决矿尘连续排放并迁移对地表生态系统造成的脆弱性问题,提出了基于函数地理Petri网的脆弱性级联传播模型。综合考虑污染物迁移方向和生态环境在地理空间上的关联关系,直观地构造了基于级联传播的污染Petri网。在此基础上,定义了基于VCPM的脆弱度和阈值的概念,利用两者的关系进行脆弱性级联传播分析,从而明确级联传播的三种状态。最后,以神府煤田矿尘迁移作为污染物连续排放的污染源,通过模型方法的模拟仿真分析,对生态环境系统在级联传播下的脆弱性进行了深入探讨。已有的研究方法和结果不仅在生态环境脆弱性研究领域做出了新的贡献,而且为环境的修复和重建提供了参考价值。

关键词: 矿尘排放, 污染网络, 函数地理Petri网, 级联传播