Abstract: After the outbreak of major epidemic, people in different areas have different risk perceptions in different periods. So public sentiments are various and their change laws have different characteristics. The existing studies usually describe the process of public sentiment evolution by data mining. There is no explicit mathematical model to depict the law of public sentiment evolution at present. Therefore, the governments are unlikely to develop effectiveinformation releasestrategies for guiding public sentiment. In view of this problem, we investigate people’s sentiment in different areas with various risks under the COVID-19. We find that people are very much concerned with COVID-19 and the public main sentiment is fear. Moreover, we get the fear levels of people in different areas in different periods using graded paired comparison method. The public fear evolution models in different risk areas are built, and we get the evolution process of COVID-19 with crisis life cycle theory. Afterwards, we get the characteristics and differences of people’s fear change. Finally, some important countermeasures for releasing information are proposed. The findings can provide theoretical support for prevention and control measures, accurately guide public rational behavior and avoid the extreme social emotion for major epidemic, as well as form a new research perspective for emotional management under major epidemic.

Key words: major epidemic, sentiment evolution model, information release strategies, graded paired comparison

摘要： 重大突发疫情发生后,不同地区的公众在不同时期对风险认知不同,因此公众情绪类型及其变化呈现出不同的特点。现有研究多采用数据挖掘方式描述公众情绪的演化过程,并没有构建刻画公众情绪演化规律的数学模型,使得政府制定的疫情信息发布策略缺乏针对性,无法有效引导公众情绪。为此,本研究调查了新冠肺炎疫情下不同风险地区的公众情绪变化,发现公众对疫情的关注率很高,主流情绪表现为恐惧。通过等级比较法得到了不同风险地区公众在不同阶段的恐惧情绪水平,构建了公众恐惧情绪演化模型,并划分为潜伏期、爆发期和延续期三个时期。比较分析了公众恐惧情绪演化的共同特性和差异,为合理引导公众情绪提出信息发布策略,为落实防控措施、精准引导公众理性行为与避免出现极端情绪提供理论支撑,为重大疫情下情绪治理形成新的研究视角。

关键词: 重大突发疫情, 情绪演化模型, 信息发布策略, 等级比较法