Abstract: In this paper, a spatial panel simultaneous equation model including regional housing price and land price is constructed, and the data of housing price, land price and other macro variables of 286 cities in China from 2009 to 2016 are used to construct the weight matrix by using the longitude and latitude information and economic information of sample cities. In this paper, GS3SLS method is applied to estimate the simultaneous equation model of spatial panel to study the spatial autocorrelation and spatial spillover effects of housing price and land price. The empirical results show that the spatial interaction between the housing price and the land price is obvious, and the housing price is affected by not only the local land price, but also the housing price of surrounding cities. The urban land price is also affected by the demand caused by the local housing price, and by the land price in the surrounding cities.In terms of different regions, the effect intensity of land price on housing price decreases successively in the east, middle and west regions, while the effect intensity of housing price on land price presents an opposite trend. In terms of price spillover effect, the western region has the most obvious price spillover effect in terms of both housing price and land price, indicating that compared with the eastern and central regions, cities in the western region are more affected by the housing price and land price of surrounding cities.

Key words: housing price, land price, ripple effect, spatial panel simultaneous equation model

摘要： 本文通过构建包含房价和地价在内的空间面板联立方程模型,利用2009~2016年中国286个地市的数据,构建空间面板联立方程模型,以研究房价和地价的空间自相关性和空间溢出效应。实证结果表明:房价与地价之间的空间互动作用明显,房价不但受到当地地价的影响还会受到周边城市房价的影响;而城市地价也会受到当地房价引起的引致需求影响,并且受到周边城市地价的影响。分区域来看,地价对房价的作用强度在东、中、西部地区依次下降,房价对地价作用强度呈现出相反的趋势。而从价格的溢出效应来看,无论是房价还是地价,西部地区的价格溢出效应都最为明显,表明相对于东、中部地区,西部地区城市在房价和地价上都更会受到周围城市的影响。

关键词: 房价, 地价, 涟漪效应, 空间面板联立模型