Abstract: This paper uses provincial panel data from 2004 to 2017 and the threshold regression technique, and makes an empirical analysis of the heterogeneous dynamic adjustment effect of three types of environmental regulations on the industrial upgrading promoted by green technology innovation. The three types of environmental regulations include command-based regulation, economic-based regulation and voluntary regulation. The result indicates that green technology significantly promotes domestic industrial upgrading, and the promoting effect is featured by dynamic inverted “U” style. Environmental regulation functions as a “regulator” in the process of industrial upgrading promoted by green technology innovation, and it can not only reverse adverse effect of green technology innovation on industrial upgrading, but also help to promote the industrial upgrading effect of green technology innovation. Environmental regulations significantly regulate the dynamic effect of green technology innovation on industrial upgrading, showing the character of positive “U” style under the adjustment of command-based and economic-based environmental regulation, and positive inverted “U” style under the voluntary environmental regulation. Different types of environmental regulations have different adjustment effects, from the perspective of adjustment methods, the command-based environmental regulation is the most effective, the economic-based environmental regulation takes the second place, and the voluntary environmental regulation is the weakest. From the perspective of spatial difference, the eastern region is the most significant, the central region takes the second place, and the western region is worse.

Key words: heterogeneous environmental regulation, green technology innovation, industrial upgrading, dynamic adjustment

摘要： 采用2004~2017年省际面板数据及门槛计量技术,实证分析了命令型、自愿型和经济型三类环境规制对绿色技术创新驱动产业升级的异质动态调节影响。研究发现,绿色技术创新显著驱动了国内产业升级,但绿色技术创新的产业升级效应具有明显的倒“U”型动态演化特征;环境规制在绿色技术创新驱动产业升级过程中发挥着“调控器”功能,不仅可扭转绿色技术创新对产业升级的不利影响,还有助于提升绿色技术创新的产业升级效应;绿色技术创新对产业升级的动态影响具有显著的异质环境规制调节特征,在命令型环境规制和经济型环境规制调节下均呈现正向“U”型特征,在自愿型环境规制调节下具有正向倒“U”型规律;现阶段环境规制的调节效果存在显著差异,从调控手段来看,命令型环境规制最佳、经济型环境规制次之、自愿型环境规制较弱。从空间差异来看,东部地区最明显、西部地区次之、中部地区较差。

关键词: 异质环境规制, 绿色技术创新, 产业升级, 动态调节