Abstract: The proportion of distributed renewable power generation (DRPG) in China's power structure continues to expand, and it has become the main development direction of renewable energy. The development of DRPG is conducive to optimizing the energy supply structure, improving energy utilization efficiency, alleviating energy security pressure and reducing environmental pollution. Scientific siting is the key stage for project optimization. At present, the study on macro-siting of DRPG is mostly focused on regional natural and infrastructure resources, and determining the suitable site by considering regional economic, environmental, technical and social criteria. The demand-driven criteria affecting the development of DRPG are not concerned, resulting in imperfect siting criteria. Meanwhile, the siting decision-making model fails to effectively eliminate the influence of subjective intention. It mostly develops the project site in the form of comprehensive evaluation, focusing on the quantity matching, and lacks the consistency reflection of coordination and matching for siting, resulting in inaccurate siting prioritization.
Regional resource conditions and user demands are the basic support for developing DRPG, and DRPG projects are built on the basis of the balance between rational utilization of resources and sufficient satisfaction of demands. Only by combining and pursuing a high matching between resources and demands, can DRPG site scientifically be determined. To resolve the problem of inaccurate prioritization caused by the imperfect processing perspective of criteria and methods, the study proposes a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making technique to select the optimal site based on the matching of resource and demand. The research constructs a siting matching criterion system with resource supply and power demand, which incorporates the resource criteria such as social acceptance and policy support, and demands criteria such as energy security and energy transformation. Based on the prospect inverse value function and variable precision rough number, the subjective weight is improved. From the perspective of matching quantity, an angle cosine siting matching decision model between resources and demands is proposed, a resource-demand matching coordinate system is established, and the matching rank for project site is divided. This study enriches the perspective and method of distributed renewable energy siting, and provides a decision-making basis for siting construction of DRPG projects.
The proposed model is applied to the siting analysis of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in Beijing, and then compared with a variety of weighting and siting models. The results show that the proposed DRPG siting weight model based on prospect inverse value function and variable precision rough number can better represent the criteria influence on siting decision, reduce the expert subjectivity and ensure the objectivity of evaluation results. The proposed siting model of angle cosine matching degree takes into account the demand motivation and resource support for developing the DRPG, which can better serve the DRPG siting. Resource exploitation potential and energy transformation demand are the most important criteria of resource side and demand side. The resources for developing photovoltaic generation projects in Beijing presents the characteristics of decreasing from the line of Chaoyang, Changping, Yanqing and Tongzhou to both sides, and high in the northeast-low in the southwest. While the demand shows the characteristics of decreasing from the central to the periphery, and high in southeast-low in northeast. Yanqing has the highest matching degree, conversely Shijingshan has the lowest matching degree. The Local Moran's index of matching shows the characteristics of HH clustering in Yanqing, Huairou and Shunyi and LL clustering in Fengtai. The DRPG development in Beijing should be mainly concentrated in the northern region, and the development priority ranking in the central and western region is low.
The article studies the DRPG siting from the matching perspective of resource and demand, which mainly considering the matching quality of renewable energy power generation, but less considering the matching quantity. How to consider the synchronous matching of matching evaluation quantity and matching evaluation quality for developing DRPG projects, so as to further serve micro-siting is the subject for subsequent research.

Key words: distributed renewable power generation, resource-demand matching, siting, variable precision rough number, prospect theory, angle cosine matching

摘要： 分布式电源在我国电源结构中占比持续扩大,因此考虑资源需求匹配开展分布式电源科学高效选址尤为重要。文章构建了以资源供给和能源需求为核心的涵盖多个因素的广义选址匹配指标体系,基于逆前景理论和可变精度粗糙数改进主观权重,提出了资源需求夹角余弦选址匹配决策模型,为分布式可再生能源发电项目选址建设提供决策依据。将所建模型应用于北京分布式光伏发电项目选址分析,研究表明,北京发展分布式光伏发电项目依托资源呈现出由朝阳、昌平、延庆、通州一线向两侧减小,东北高-西南低的特征;需求则呈中部向外围降低,东南高-东北低的特征;延庆区匹配程度最高,石景山区匹配度最低;匹配度Local Moran's指数呈现延庆、怀柔、顺义HH聚类,丰台LL聚类的特征。北京分布式可再生能源发电项目开发应主要集中在北部区域。

关键词: 分布式可再生能源发电, 资源-需求匹配, 选址, 可变精度粗糙数, 前景理论, 夹角余弦匹配度