Abstract: A new pre-sale model based on e-commerce platforms has successfully bridged the gap between production and consumption, providing a novel approach to increase farmers’ income. It offers advantages such as securing demand in advance and more accurately predicting consumer needs, which optimizes warehouse management. Additionally, it enables early access to funds from pre-sales, alleviating financial pressures on farmers to some extent. However, given the substantial costs involved in agricultural production and storage for unsold goods, small and medium-sized farmers still face significant financial challenges.
A review and summary of the existing literature reveals that while significant attention has been paid to product pre-sales and financing issues within agricultural supply chains in recent years, the integration of output uncertainty with product pre-sales and supply chain finance has not been thoroughly examined within the same framework. There is also room for further exploration into the financial value of pre-sales on e-commerce platforms. Therefore, this paper enriches the theoretical study of yield uncertainty and product pre-sale, while providing reference points for reducing risk associated with yield uncertainty and improving pre-sale system management on platforms. Additionally, it delves more deeply than traditional financing models to explore e-commerce-led agricultural supply chain financing strategies, introducing an innovative and proactive e-commerce financing model that enhances related theories in agricultural supply chain finance. This paper aims to contribute new insights and theoretical explorations in the context of e-commerce pre-sales, aiding the financing practices of agricultural supply chain stakeholders.
As the new business format of e-commerce platform pre-sales continues to thrive, small and medium-sized farmers face an increasingly dynamic and competitive environment, where financing challenges become more evident. This research finds that: (1)Under external bank financing models, farmers’ profits increase with the volume of pre-sales, but when pre-sale volumes are too high, profits tend to plateau. Conversely, under the e-commerce platform’s early payment model, profits initially increase with the volume of pre-sales but eventually decrease. (2)When pre-sale volumes are low and wholesale price discount rates are high, both farmers and e-commerce platforms prefer the early payment model. However, as wholesale discount rates decrease, its attractiveness diminishes, and both parties lean towards reverse factoring financing on the e-commerce platform. (3)High expected capital return rates and wholesale price discount rates make the early payment model favorable for both parties. Yet, as wholesale discount rates decrease, financing preferences diverge; farmers may switch to the e-commerce platform’s reverse factoring financing model.
Managerial implications are: (1)For farmers, more pre-sale quantities are not always better. Excessive pre-sale volumes can reduce or even negatively impact the alleviation of financial pressures. Farmers should plan their production inputs rationally and avoid blind manufacturing. (2)The choice of financing model is critically influenced by the volume of pre-sale, wholesale price discount rates, and expected capital return rates. Farmers should consider all aspects holistically, and e-commerce platforms should leverage their informational advantages to collect and forecast market pre-sale data, helping farmers make informed production decisions to increase income and align financing preferences. (3)E-commerce platforms, holding a dominant position, should make financing decisions strategically to lock in future capabilities, considering multiple factors such as expected capital return rates and wholesale price discount rates. It is crucial to set reasonable expected capital return rates without excessively pursuing low wholesale prices—moderating expected capital return rates and elevating wholesale discount rates could foster a win-win situation for all members of the agricultural supply chain.

Key words: agricultural supply chain finance, products pre-sale, e-commerce platform financing

摘要： 本文研究了基于电商平台预售订单的农业供应链中的三种内外部融资模式:银行融资、电商平台反向保理融资及提前支付,分析了农业供应链成员的融资模式偏好,并探究了预售数量等关键参数对供应链成员利润和融资模式选择的影响。研究发现:当预售数量较小、批发价格折扣系数较大时,农户与电商平台均偏好于电商平台提前支付模式;而随着批发价格折扣系数减小,电商平台提前支付模式的吸引力减弱,双方则均偏好于电商平台反向保理融资模式。当批发价格折扣系数与期望资金收益率均较大时,农户和电商平台融资策略达成一致,均偏好于电商平台提前支付融资模式;而随着批发价格折扣系数减小,双方融资偏好发生差异,农户更倾向于电商平台反向保理融资模式。

关键词: 农业供应链金融, 产品预售, 电商平台融资