Abstract: In the current context of globalization and digitization, supply chain management has become one of the key strategic tools for enterprises to gain competitive advantage. Demand uncertainty poses a common challenge to supply chain management, and enterprises are facing increasingly complex operational environments and risks. Operational risks arising from demand uncertainty and disruption risks caused by external factors are the two main challenges facing supply chain management. Operational risks involve inherent uncertainties such as demand, supply, lead times, prices, and product return levels, with demand uncertainty being the most common. Furthermore, exploring the randomness behind demand is a key challenge to demand quantification management. Disruption risks include exogenous events such as geopolitical issues, natural disasters, and trade protectionism, all of which can have serious impacts on the supply chain management. The advancement of digital technology enables supply chains to provide the right quantity of products at the right time and place more accurately. However, this also poses a significant challenge to balancing supply chain management capabilities with demand uncertainty to cope with fluctuating demand. This article systematically presents the research panorama in this field, helping scholars to better understand the current research status in demand uncertainty supply chain management and providing references for further exploration of research frontiers and hotspots in academia and industry.
This article uses Citespace software to visually and systematically review 961 papers and literature reviews published from 2009 to June 4, 2022. Through techniques such as core author analysis, keyword co-occurrence, and co-citation analysis, it reveals the “social-concept-knowledge” structure of the demand uncertainty supply chain management field, identifies key concepts and research hotspots, and clarifies key disciplines and emerging trends. Statistical analysis results identify the most influential scholars, key research institutions, core concepts, and the most influential journals in the field of demand uncertainty supply chain management. The current research hotspots in demand uncertainty supply chain management are topics related to product scheduling and the design of supply chain resilience networks, with the main research methods being modeling using operations research and management science methods. Based on the conceptual structure and knowledge structure, conclusions are drawn regarding future research directions and key research questions in demand uncertainty supply chain management.
Based on the findings of this article, two future research directions and research questions are proposed: from the perspective of supply chain resilience, supply chain resilience involves pre-disaster absorptive capacity, post-disaster adaptive capacity, and recovery capacity, enabling the supply chain to better respond to emergencies. RQ1: how to effectively evaluate supply chain resilience and construct an evaluation index system? RQ2: how to design complex supply chain networks to enhance supply chain resilience? RQ3: how to balance the relationship between supply chain resilience and economic and social benefits? From the perspective of product scheduling, efficient scheduling patterns have become an important source of competitive advantage. RQ4: how does the widespread application of digital technology in product scheduling challenge existing supply chain management theories? RQ5: how to optimize dynamic scheduling problems in the supply chain through digital technology?

Key words: supply chain management, demand uncertainty, stochastic demand, demand disruption, bibliometrics

摘要： 本文的主要目的是对 2009年至 2022年6月4日发表的961篇论文和文献综述进行可视化和系统的科学计量回顾。应用核心作者分析、关键词共现和文献共被引分析技术,揭示了需求不确定供应链管理领域的“社会-概念-知识”结构,确定了关键概念和研究热点,阐明了关键学科和新兴趋势。统计分析结果确定了需求不确定供应链管理领域最有影响力的学者、关键科研机构、核心概念以及最有影响力的期刊。目前需求不确定供应链管理领域的研究热点是产品调度和供应链弹性网络设计相关课题,主要研究方法是使用运筹学与管理科学方法建模。基于概念结构和知识结构的结论归纳出需求不确定供应链管理未来研究方向和关键性研究问题。本文将为理论界和实践界展示需求不确定供应链管理领域研究全景。

关键词: 供应链管理, 需求不确定, 随机需求, 需求中断, 文献计量