Abstract: As an important source of systemic financial risk, debt default is one of the most destructive events in the operational process of enterprises. It not only has a fatal impact on the development of enterprises themselves but also poses a serious threat to financial security and social stability. Due to the dual impact of global economic downturn pressure and the tightening business environment, the risk of default on China's real economy debt has significantly increased, becoming a focus of attention from all sectors of society. Debt default of 124.3 billion RMB occurred in China's credit bonds in 2018, rising to 147.6 billion RMB in 2019. In the past two years, many large enterprises have experienced frequent serious debt default events. Not only have defaults in the bond market increased, but the balance of non-performing loans from commercial banks has also continued to rise, from 1774.3 billion RMB in the first quarter of 2018 to 2982.9 billion RMB in the fourth quarter of 2022. With the gradual accumulation and exposure of debt default issues, the profit space of physical enterprises continues to shrink. It has become a common phenomenon for enterprises to invest their funds in financial assets to obtain short-term returns. However, excessive financialization behavior can have a serious negative impact on enterprises, leading to a disruption in their capital flow and even exacerbating the risk of debt default.
Short-term loans for long-term investment are the phenomenon of enterprises using short-term debt funds to support long-term investment activities, which is an important reason for corporate debt default. The “reservoir” effect and “crowding out” effect of corporate financialization will affect the short-term loans for long-term investment behavior of enterprises, thereby affecting the risk of corporate debt default. It can be seen that the study of financial asset investment behavior under short-term loans for long-term investment strategy has significant implications for the impact of corporate debt default risk. The research conclusion of this article provides not only new evidence for the moderate hypothesis of corporate financialization, but also guidance for enterprises to reasonably allocate financial assets and choose investment and financing strategies. It also provides empirical support for regulatory agencies to effectively prevent “default waves” or even “bankruptcy waves” in the real economy, and maintain financial security and stability. Based on the above discussion, in this article, A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2021 are used as samples to conduct in-depth research on the overall level of corporate financialization, the impact of short-term and long-term financial investments on debt default risk, and verify the transmission mechanism of short-term loans and long-term investments in the above impact relationships.
The results show that if the “reservoir” effect dominates, corporate financialization will inhibit the risk of debt default, and if the “crowding” effect dominates, corporate financialization will aggravate the risk of debt default, i.e., the relationship between the two is U-shaped, which is largely due to long-term financial asset investment, as short-term financial asset investment mainly plays a “reservoir” effect and only suppresses the risk of debt default. The analysis of the impact mechanism finds that short-term loans for long-term investment play a mediating role in the relationship between corporate financialization and debt default, exacerbating the U-shaped impact of the two. This is mainly because short-term financial asset investment suppresses the risk of debt default by weakening the short-term loans for long-term investment, while excessive long-term financial asset investment aggravates the risk of debt default by increasing short-term loans for long-term investment. Furthermore, heterogeneity studies have shown that among larger enterprises with weaker cash flow and higher financing constraints, corporate financialization, short-term financialization investments, and long-term financialization investments have a more significant impact on debt default risk. Based on the above conclusions, we put forward targeted policy recommendations from the level of real enterprises, government supervision and financial institutions, respectively, so as to provide empirical guidance for all parties to correctly recognize the dual impact of investment in financial assets and effectively prevent systemic financial risks.

Key words: enterprise financialization, debt default, short-term loans for long-term investment, financing constraints

摘要： 探究短贷长投策略下的金融资产投资行为对企业债务违约风险的影响具有重要意义。本文以2007—2021年A股上市公司为样本,实证检验企业金融化对债务违约风险的影响。结果表明,如果“蓄水池”效应占主导,企业金融化抑制债务违约风险;如果“挤占”效应占主导,企业金融化加剧债务违约风险,即二者呈现U型关系,这很大程度上是由于长期金融化投资所致,因为短期金融化投资主要发挥“蓄水池”效应,仅抑制债务违约风险。影响机制分析发现,短贷长投在企业金融化与债务违约的影响关系中发挥中介作用,加剧了二者的U型影响,这是由于短期金融化投资通过削弱短贷长投抑制债务违约风险,而过度的长期金融化投资通过增加短贷长投加剧债务违约风险。研究不仅为企业合理进行金融资产配置和投融资策略选择提供指导,而且为监管机构防范实体经济出现“违约潮”甚至“破产潮”提供经验支持。

关键词: 企业金融化, 债务违约, 短贷长投, 融资约束