Abstract: Considering the limitation of rational man hypothesis on the classical game theory, this paper studies the evolution of urban demolition conflict by combining the RDEU game model with complex system’s brittleness theory. Firstly, based on the new RDEU theory, it gives the RDEU excepted income function of the local government and the relocated household respectively and builds the RDEU game model of the urban demolition by incorporating player’s emotional factors into the expected utility function; and discusses the behavior evolution laws of the relocated household taking confrontational strategy and the local government taking forced demolition strategy under the influence of emotion. Then, on the basis of entropy and cellular automata, it builds the system’s brittleness evolution rule of urban demolition and simulates the brittleness excitation process of demolition disputes evolving to confrontation and conflict. The findings demonstrate that either for the relocated household or the local government, when they have pessimistic emotion, it is much more possible for them to take hardball tactics with the pessimistic emotion deepening, which shortens the time for urban demolition system collapsing, and demolition disputes will evolve to confrontation and conflict quickly. Lastly, the paper puts forward the countermeasures.

Key words: urban demolition, RDEU game model, emotion, system’s brittleness

摘要： 针对经典博弈理论“理性人”假设存在的局限性,将RDEU博弈模型与复杂系统脆性理论集成来研究情绪因素影响下城市拆迁的冲突演化问题。首先基于新的RDEU理论将参与人的情绪因素融入期望效用函数中,给出了地方政府、被拆迁人的RDEU期望收益函数,构建了城市拆迁的RDEU博弈模型,讨论了情绪影响下被拆迁人采取抗争策略和地方政府采取强拆策略的行为演化规律。随后基于熵和元胞自动机建立了城市拆迁的系统脆性演化规则,模拟了城市拆迁由纠纷演化为对抗冲突的脆性激发过程。研究结果表明:无论是被拆迁人还是地方政府,当他们具有“悲观”情绪时,随着情绪的加剧,他们采取强硬策略相互对抗的可能性会增大,悲观情绪会使城市拆迁系统崩溃所需的时间缩短,拆迁纠纷会快速演化为对抗冲突。最后提出了相应的对策建议。

关键词: 城市拆迁, RDEU博弈模型, 情绪, 系统脆性