Modeling and Simulation of Quality Risk Transmission of Construction Project Based on SEIRS

doi:10.12005/orms.2020.0191

Operations Research and Management Science ›› 2020, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (7): 214-221.DOI: 10.12005/orms.2020.0191

• Management Science • Previous Articles Next Articles

Modeling and Simulation of Quality Risk Transmission of Construction Project Based on SEIRS

WANG Yu-ting^1ab, FENG Jing-chun^1ab,2, ZHANG Ke^1ab, LI Ming^1a,c, XUE Song^1ab

1. Hohai University a. Business School; b.Institute of Project Management; c.International River Research Centre, Nanjing 211100, China;
2. Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, China

Received:2018-01-04 Online:2020-07-25

基于SEIRS的建设工程质量风险传递模型及仿真研究

汪玉亭^1ab, 丰景春^1a,2, 张可^1ab, 李明^1ac, 薛松^1ab

1.河海大学 a.商学院; b.项目管理研究所; c.国际河流研究中心,江苏南京 211100;
2.江苏省“世界水谷”与水生态文明协同创新中心,江苏南京 211100

作者简介:汪玉亭(1993-),女,博士生,研究方向为工程管理与项目管理;丰景春(1963-),男,教授,研究方向为工程管理与项目管理;张可(1983-),男,副教授,研究方向:系统工程;李明(1978-),男,副教授,研究方向为信息管理与信息系统;薛松(1980-),男,副教授,研究方向为工程管理与项目管理。
基金资助:
国家社科基金(17BGL156);国家社会科学基金青年项目(15CJL023);广东省水利科技计划创新项目(2017-04)”;江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX18_0510),中央高校基本科研业务费(2018B708X14)

Abstract

Abstract: Since the construction process, the professional level of employees and information of construction project have a prominent fragmentation phenomenon leading to the quality risk transmission. In order to reveal the transfer effect and amplification effect of quality risk in construction project,based on the dynamic principle of infectious disease model, considering comprehensively the factors of the quality risk transmission, we establish a SEIRS model of the quality risk transmission. The simulation research shows that there is a threshold in the quality risk transmission process of construction project. When the threshold is h1, the risk gradually attenuates until it disappears under the action of barrier factors. When the threshold is h<1, the risk will be stable in construction projects and even endanger the overall quality under the action of promoting factors.This paper can provide theoretical support for the government to realize the transition from direct supervision to indirect supervision, from prior supervision to process-oriented supervision.

Key words: construction project, quality risk, risk transmission, SEIRS model, simulation analysis

摘要： 工程建设过程、从业人员专业水平和信息存在较为突出的碎片化现象,导致了工程质量风险的传递。为揭示平行承发包模式下建设工程质量风险的传递效应和放大效应,利用传染病模型中的动力学原理,综合考虑工程质量风险传递的影响因素,构建了SEIRS的建设工程质量风险传递模型。仿真研究结果表明,建设工程在质量风险传递过程中存在阈值;质量风险传递阈值h1时,在质量风险传递阻碍因素的作用下,风险逐步衰减直至消失;质量风险传递阈值h<1时,在质量风险传递促进因素的作用下,风险会稳定存在于建设工程中,甚至危害工程的整体质量。研究结论为政府实现由直接监管向间接监管、由事前监管向事中事后监管的转变等提供理论支撑。

关键词: 建设工程, 质量风险, 风险传递, SEIRS模型, 仿真分析

CLC Number:

WANG Yu-ting, FENG Jing-chun, ZHANG Ke, LI Ming, XUE Song. Modeling and Simulation of Quality Risk Transmission of Construction Project Based on SEIRS[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2020, 29(7): 214-221.

汪玉亭, 丰景春, 张可, 李明, 薛松. 基于SEIRS的建设工程质量风险传递模型及仿真研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2020, 29(7): 214-221.

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Modeling and Simulation of Quality Risk Transmission of Construction Project Based on SEIRS

基于SEIRS的建设工程质量风险传递模型及仿真研究

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