Abstract: Achieving high-quality development of China's economy has become the direction and focus of China's current and future economic development, the key to which lies in making the past factor-driven shift to innovation-driven, and focusing on Green Total Factor Productivity(GTFP). GTFP is a comprehensive measurement based on traditional TFP, taking into account factors such as energy consumption and environmental pollution, which can more objectively and truthfully reflect economic development performance and is more in line with the contemporary concept of green development. Therefore, exploring the driving path and promotion mechanism of GTFP is crucial to achieving high-quality economic development. In recent years, under the implementation and promotion of the “going global” strategy and the “the Belt and Road” initiative policy, China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI) has shown a rapid growth trend. Under “New Normal”, China needs to fully release the structural dividend of factor allocation through industrial restructuring, and focus on promoting supply side structural reform to achieve the improvement of GTFP. There is a two-way interaction relationship between OFDI and industrial structure upgrading. OFDI drives the upgrading of domestic industrial structure, and the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure also help multinational enterprises to “go global” for overseas investment and further improve the level of OFDI. Thus, this paper analyzes the relationship among OFDI, industrial structure upgrading and GTFP, and tries to find OFDI strategies and industrial structure adjustment policies to promote domestic green transformation from this relationship, and the synergistic development of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading, which has important theoretical and practical value for achieving high-quality economic development in China.
Through combing the literature, it is found that there is a complex relationship among OFDI, industrial structure upgrading, and TFP(GTFP). However, the current literature studies mainly focus on the relationship between two of the three, OFDI, industrial structure upgrading and TFP (GTFP) , and rarely discuss the impact of the synergistic development of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading on GTFP. Moreover, the potential “threshold effect” due to the stage mismatch of the relationship between the two is ignored. Based on this, this paper first uses SBM directional distance function and GML index to measure the GTFP of China's provinces from 2004 to 2018. Secondly, the general panel data model and the panel threshold model are constructed to empirically test the synergistic effect of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading on domestic GTFP, and the possible “threshold effect” of the green productivity growth effect of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading due to the stage mismatch between them. The research value of this paper is to provide policy recommendations for the promotion of China's GTFP from the perspective of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading.
The results are as follows: First, OFDI has significantly promoted the GTFP, which supports the reverse green technology spillover effect of OFDI existing in China, which has become new momentum for China accelerating the GTFP in the new development stage. Second, industrial structure upgrading has a positive effect on China's GTFP. Third, the synergistic development of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading has significantly promoted the GTFP in China. Finally, the green productivity growth effect of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading has a “threshold effect” because of the stage mismatch between the two. Specifically, with the change of OFDI threshold range, the impact of industrial structure upgrading on the GTFP shows the feature of the nonlinear increasing marginal efficiency, which effectively strengthens the “synergistic effect” of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading. Under the threshold of industrial structure upgrading, OFDI has an obvious U-shaped effect on GTFP, that is, only when the level of industrial structure is raised to a certain height, OFDI will significantly promote GTFP growth, and there is a significant “synergistic effect” between OFDI and industrial structure upgrading.
Based on the findings of this paper, the following suggestions are proposed. First, give full play to OFDI's reverse green technology spillover effect and promote the improvement of domestic GTFP.Second, make multi-dimensional efforts to enhance the level of advanced industrial structure and leverage the green productivity growth effect of industrial structure upgrading.Third,strengthen the “synergistic effect” of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading to achieve the green productivity growth effect of “1+1>2”. Finally,break the “threshold effect” in the synergistic development of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading, and realize the matching synergistic development of OFDI and industrial structure upgrading.

Key words: OFDI, industrial structure upgrading, Green Total Factor Productivity

摘要： 本文首先运用SBM方向性距离函数与全域Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数估算得到2004—2018年中国30个省份的绿色全要素生产率(TFP),并以此为基础构建普通面板数据模型和面板门槛模型,实证检验了OFDI与产业结构升级的绿色生产率增长效应。研究发现:OFDI显著促进了中国绿色TFP的提升,从绿色生产率的视角验证了OFDI的逆向绿色技术溢出在中国情境下真实存在,OFDI能够成为支撑新发展阶段下中国绿色TFP提升的新力量;产业结构升级显著促进了中国绿色TFP的提升;OFDI与产业结构升级的协同发展显著促进了中国绿色TFP的提升;OFDI与产业结构升级的绿色生产率增长效应因二者关系的阶段性不匹配而存在“门槛效应”。本文的研究丰富了绿色TFP的影响因素研究,为进一步理解新发展阶段下如何提升绿色TFP提供了一个新的视角。

关键词: 对外直接投资, 产业结构升级, 绿色全要素生产率