Abstract: Industry is the leading sector of most national economies and industry is the most important producer of industrial and living goods. It provides the essential materials for people’s daily lives and for the economic activities of various industries. Recently, major disasters such as earthquakes, floods and epidemics have resulted in the large-scale shutdown of industrial enterprises in disaster-stricken cities and damaged intra-regional and inter-regional supply networks. Major disasters often cause significant economic losses, severe material shortages and inflated prices, threatening economic security and social stability.
How to balance the stability and economy of the supply system under the restrictions of major disasters is meaningful. In view of this, this paper explores a multi-level, multi-channel, multi-stage core industrial enterprise major disaster from a meso perspective, systematically linking pre-disaster defense and post-disaster response, starting from the strength of government relief under major disasters, dividing network resilience into point resilience and line resilience, and exploring a multi-level, multi-channel, multi-stage core industrial enterprise major disaster by establishing a three-stage game model of defense-attack-response blocking response process. The two-stage robust optimization model is also decomposed into a master-subproblem using the column and constraint generation algorithm (C&CG), and solved by alternating iterations of the master and subproblems. Using city Z as an example, we verify the feasibility of this game model by examining the resilience state of the supply network of core industrial enterprises during the response to COVID-19 epidemic, including the defense plan and the response plan after suffering from the epidemic blockage, and propose strategies and characteristics to improve the resilience of the supply network of core industrial enterprises in city Z under the epidemic blockage.
The results show that: (1)The game model for solving the resilience of energy networks in disaster management can also well portray the resilience of material supply networks in industrial enterprises, and the C&CG algorithm can balance the stability and economy of the supply system through alternate iterations of the main and sub-problems. (2)Different disaster levels should adopt different resilience enhancement strategies. (3)Different types of supply lines should adopt different resilience enhancement strategies. (4)Accurate prediction of major disaster blocking conditions is the key to the resilience enhancement of the supply network of core industrial enterprises. (5)The government should be guided by the disaster defense needs and market forecasts of core industrial enterprises in each category in deciding the material stockpile decision process, not only based on their regional importance level. Core industrial enterprises can independently adjust the level of material stockpiles according to their actual defense needs, thus reducing to some extent the investment costs for dealing with major disaster interdiction. In this case, even when the actual epidemic situation is worse than expected, the level of resilience of the regional core industrial enterprises’ supply network can still be guaranteed within a certain range. The research in this paper is intended to provide theoretical support for regional response to major disasters and to ensure the uninterrupted production and supply of critical supplies.

Key words: disaster restrictions, core industrial enterprises, supply network, linear resilience, point resilience

摘要： 核心工业企业在重大灾害阻隔下,其供应网络的被动式修复往往以不计代价、有求必应、逐个突破的方式展开,大大降低了供应网络的修复效率并增加了成本。如何在重大灾害阻隔下实现供应系统稳定性与经济性的平衡是一个值得研究的问题。本文从供给网络韧性视角探讨了区域核心工业企业在应对重大灾害阻隔时的防御投资优化策略和系统韧性提升策略。在考虑政府重大灾害救济的前提下,将网络韧性分为线韧性和点韧性,通过建立一种防御-攻击-应对的三阶段博弈模型,探索了多级别、多渠道、多阶段的核心工业企业重大灾害阻隔的应对过程,并用C&CG算法进行求解。通过Z市应对COVID-19疫情的算例,验证了本博弈模型的可行性,提出了Z市在疫情阻隔下提升核心工业企业供给网络韧性的策略和特征。结果表明:韧性提升策略的选择与不同灾害等级、不同类别企业的供应线路特征、对重大灾害阻隔状况的预测水平、各类别核心工业企业的灾害防御需求密切相关。本文的研究以期为区域应对重大灾害、保障紧要物资的不间断生产和供应提供理论支撑。

关键词: 重大灾害阻隔, 核心工业企业, 供给网络, 线韧性, 点韧性