Abstract: Green investment is in line with the common strategic needs of Belt and Road countries. However, due to the long construction period and high sunk costs, multinational enterprises' green investment projects are particularly sensitive to Belt and Road countries' political risk. The political risk may originate from the instability of internal political elements in the host country or extraterritorial intervention by major powers.
This study explores the relationship between the perception of host and extraterritorial intervention political risks, and the green investment location choice of Chinese enterprises in Belt and Road countries under the influence of internal and external reference points. Green investment activities launched by Chinese-listed enterprises from 2013 to 2019 are used as samples. First, the initial overseas investment data of Chinese enterprises are obtained from the BvD Orbis Crossborder Investment Database. Then, we match the data with the A-share listed companies of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Further, from the annual report text disclosed by the listed companies, we mine the data on the scope of multinational enterprises' overseas business. The annual report information of listed companies can be mutually verified with relevant information on investment events in the BvD database, and some missing or incorrect information can be supplemented and corrected. According to the 2019 edition of Green Industry Guidance Catalogue, the green investment of Chinese enterprises in Belt and Road countries includes six main aspects: energy conservation and environmental protection, clean production, clean energy, ecological environment industries, green upgrading of infrastructure, and green services. The logit approach is used to estimate the impact of perceived political risk on enterprises' investment decisions in Belt and Road countries.
The study finds that, as an internal reference point, the stronger the political risk management capability of an enterprise, the weaker the perception of host political risk. Therefore, the political risk management capability of an enterprise can weak the negative impact of host political risk on the green investment of Chinese enterprises in Belt and Road countries. With an increase in extraterritorial intervention, as an external reference point, a strong perception of extraterritorial intervention political risk reduces Chinese enterprises' preference for green investment in Belt and Road countries. Extraterritorial intervention political risk weakens the moderating effect of enterprises' political risk management capability. Theoretically, this research extends the understanding of the relationship between the host political environment and enterprises' overseas location choice. Unlike previous studies focusing on the macro characteristics of the host political environment, this study takes the political risk perceived by enterprises as the basis of investment location decisions based on the reference point theory. The internal reference point is the political risk management ability of enterprises, and the external reference point is the extraterritorial intervention by major powers. Empirically, these findings are significant for Belt and Road green investment location decisions of Chinese enterprises. Based on the concept of green development, we select the Belt and Road green investment of Chinese enterprises as the research object, focus on the political risks they face, and construct a sample of green investment at the micro-enterprise level by mining the annual reports of listed companies. The research conclusions have practical significance for multinational enterprises in choosing green investment locations and promoting the construction of the Green Silk Road.
This study proposes internal and external reference points for Chinese enterprises to perceive political risks in specific host countries when making green investments along Belt and Road countries and conducts empirical tests. However, multinational enterprises' location decisions for foreign investment, especially for green investment, face a complex international environment and may have other reference points and complex interactions between multiple reference points. Thus, this research direction is worth exploring.

Key words: political risk perception, Belt and Road green investment, dual reference points, political risk management capability, extraterritorial intervention

摘要： 绿色投资符合“一带一路”国家共同的战略需求。但由于建设周期长、沉没成本高,绿色投资对政治风险格外敏感。这些政治风险既可能来源于东道国本身政治要素的不稳定,也可能来源于域外大国的干预。本文考察在内部和外部双参照点影响下,中国企业对政治风险的感知与在“一带一路”国家绿色投资区位决策之间的关系,并基于2013—2019年中国上市公司的绿色投资数据进行实证检验。研究表明:作为重要的内部参照点,企业的政治风险管理能力越强,其投资区位决策对东道国政治风险的感知越弱,从而会弱化东道国政治风险对中国企业“一带一路”绿色投资的负向影响;作为重要的外部参照点,随着域外大国干预可能性的增加,较强的域外干预政治风险感知会降低中国企业“一带一路”绿色投资对特定东道国的选择倾向;同时,域外干预政治风险会弱化企业政治风险管理能力的调节效应。研究结论对中国企业绿色投资区位决策具有启示意义。

关键词: 政治风险感知, “一带一路”绿色投资, 双参照点, 政治风险管理能力, 域外干预